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"inflation isn't just a number it's a behavior pattern if workers expect prices to rise they demand higher wages if firms expect higher wages they raise prices." - Financial Historian [00:02:51]
"once inflation expectations detach from policy credibility you're no longer adjusting the economy you were chasing it." - Financial Historian…
Most estimates of the impact of the war show 20% of global oil markets disrupted... If so, it would be the largest disruption in terms of barrels and % of spare capacity since WWII. #J.P.Morgan
Excerpt from the article.
The ongoing crisis can be viewed in two main ways: - Iran and its nuclear program as the central focus of the conflict. In this narrow lens, the war revolves primarily around containing or neutralizing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If that’s the case, any impact is short-lived. Regardless, the US will benefit, even in the long term, from the closure of the Hormuz strait - *Iran as…
"Why did Iran actually decide to go after countries that did not attack them? It relates to Iran's broader strategy... They want to restore deterrence and their way of doing that is indicating to everyone... that attacking us is not worth it." - Greg Brew [00:00:00]
"The bigger scenario that the Iranians are more concerned about is a scenario where…
"we're now in 2020 after COVID uh where we the the the AI world started people start talking about you know data centers the electric grid is insufficient we need to spend money there and so all of a sudden uh we're starting the next super cycle of commodities" - Josef Schachter [00:21:07]
"it's the emerging world that's really growing because if we need more lithium…
"We're just getting started to reflect the totality of the increase in oil prices in the markets both things can be true which is that it can be immediately inflationary and put the Fed on its heels... and over time be enough of a drag on growth that it could create a negative shock on the economy..." - Bob Elliott [00:00:00]
"The dots are nonsense and just like…
The Petrochemical Products Flow Chart
Saudi Arabia is pumping crude through its East-West Pipeline from its fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The kingdom typically exports around 6 million barrels per day (bpd) through Hormuz. The pipeline can take up to 5 million bpd, but Yanbu has rarely loaded more than 2.5 million bpd.
The United Arab Emirates also has a pipeline that can transport some crude to bypass the strait.…
Apollo: Chart book (available here) looks at the simulated effects of $100 oil prices on the economy.
Overview
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Here is a comprehensive summary of the Bloomberg Television interview with Jeff Currie of Carlyle, breaking down the severe global macroeconomic implications of the current energy supply shock.
Overview Jeff Currie details an escalating global energy crisis defined by a massive divergence between physical commodity shortages and lagging financial markets. Describing the situation as a "molecular contagion," he…
"we've already seen around 8 and a half million barrels a day of production shut in on those producers already that's not... what's exports have been lost that's actual shut in the ground" - Rory Johnston [00:10:03]
"if you turn them off everything kind of solidifies in the pipes and like that's not great so you want to be able to get these things…
Jeff Currie: "In my latest paper, co-authored with James Gutman, we examine how vulnerabilities in key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could reshape supply expectations, shift risk premia, and affect broader macro conditions. Incremental production elsewhere offers only partial offsets, and structural geopolitical pressures will persist." "Oil…
"Even if a ceasefire is reached in the coming days, it will take time to restart the energy supply chain." - Host (Establishing the persistent nature of physical market damage) [00:00:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkuNz2_L8tk&t=0h0m2s)
"This is not just a disruption in oil; it's gas, it's fertilizers, it's metals, it's petrochemicals. The list goes on and on." - Jeff Currie (Highlighting the…
Share of Global Seaborne Energy Shipments | Through Strait of Hormuz in 2025
Following the military campaign by the U.S. and Israel resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, global energy markets are facing heightened volatility. This summary outlines the strategic implications for supply, pricing, and the broader economy.
Immediate Disruptions & Infrastructure Impact The conflict has moved beyond regional tension into a "tail risk" scenario involving…
Torsten Slok (Apollo) : The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil trade, making any disruption an immediate risk to energy prices and macro outcomes. Chart book, available here, examines energy demand and supply, as well as the significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
The results indicate that **positive oil price moves and data surprises significantly lift yields, higher policy uncertainty lowers them, and geopolitical shocks have no direct…
Reuters: Oil prices have been a consistent disinflationary force for the U.S. and global economies since mid-2024. That may be about to change.
Fueled by signs of a solid upturn in economic activity at the start of the year and bubbling [U.S.-Iran…
"The egos and realpolitik of an American president, a Russian dictator and a Saudi crown prince have proved more important than any econometric model or Wall Street bank forecast."
"Is this the subliminal message behind the 30 percent rise in gold and the surreal 65 percent increase in silver in January? Which…
"Price is Right": oil is the best performing asset in 2026 on US Iran, and geopolitical shocks. Following geopolitical shocks in past 90 years oil is the best performer over 3 months (up 18%), then gold (6%) US stocks (4%); but 6 months after geopolitical shocks gold keeps outperforming (up 19%), stocks stall, while oil reverses all gains. Or "Rock the Geopolitics = trade oil, own gold."
Strait of Hormuz: 13mpbd, ~31% of Global Seaborne Oil Trade. Also a key route for LNG, ~20% of global LNG shipments passing through it, mostly from Qatar.
"The short is out. The market is net long now for the first time in nearly a year and I think they've given up the ghost of the glut." — Jeff Currie (Discussing shifting sentiment in oil markets) 00:00:19
"I wrote this piece comparing the shale revolution to the AI boom. People forget that in 2013 and 2014, energy could do no wrong... and people hated tech." — **Jeff…
//A perspective on US Shale
In 1643, Evangelista Torricelli used a tube of mercury to first measure pressure. In 1897, German mechanical engineer Rudolf Diesel invented the diesel engine with financial help from the Krupp family, financiers of the Third Reich. Four thousand years ago, the Egyptians invented the pump. > > Collectively, the above are the **bedrock of…
