https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2026/02/08/531d73dd-fd3f-4647-9841-46e2261e4f4c.html
GS: While our long-run crude oil price forecast is above the forwards (Brent 2030 forecast of $75), our near-term base case remains that Brent moderates from $68/bbl to a bottom of $54 by 2026Q4 for two reasons.
First, we expect a 2026 surplus of just over 2mb/d assuming the January supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and the US ease and no large new supply disruptions (if US policymakers focus on affordability).
Second, we assume that the share of global inventory increases in the OECD commercial pricing centers picks up from its unusually low just under 10% share in 2025 to the historical norm of ~30% (as the pace of accumulation of sanctioned barrels on water moderates).
References
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