https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2026/02/08/531d73dd-fd3f-4647-9841-46e2261e4f4c.html

GS: While our long-run crude oil price forecast is above the forwards (Brent 2030 forecast of $75), our near-term base case remains that Brent moderates from $68/bbl to a bottom of $54 by 2026Q4 for two reasons.

• First, we expect a 2026 surplus of just over 2mb/d assuming the January supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and the US ease and no large new supply disruptions (if US policymakers focus on affordability).

• Second, we assume that the share of global inventory increases in the OECD commercial pricing centers picks up from its unusually low just under 10% share in 2025 to the historical norm of ~30% (as the pace of accumulation of sanctioned barrels on water moderates).