What Is the Impact of $100 Oil Prices on the US Economy? | Torsten Slok's The Daily Spark | Apollo Global

Apollo: Chart book (available here) looks at the simulated effects of $100 oil prices on the economy.

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Overview

• Model estimates from a version of the Fed’s model show a modest macroeconomic drag from a persistent shock to oil prices
• Persistent shock ($100 through 2027) - Impact fades over several quarters, peak effects: • Headline inflation: +0.7 percentage point • Core Inflation: +0.1 percentage point • Unemployment: +0.1 percentage point • Real GDP: -0.1% percentage point

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Bottom line

• The US is a net oil exporter, and energy efficiency has improved significantly over the years, meaning the compared to historical levels, which helps .