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Monetary Policy/February 24, 2026/1 min read/reuters.com

Watch out for oil's disappearing disinflationary drag | Reuters

Source

Reuters: Oil prices have been a consistent disinflationary force for the U.S. and global economies since mid-2024. That may be about to change.

Fueled by signs of a solid upturn in economic activity at the start of the year and bubbling U.S.-Iran tensions that could spark military conflict, Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are the highest in nearly seven months.

References

  1. Original source (reuters.com)

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Reading

Published
February 24, 2026
Read time
1 min read
Progress0%

In other words, the so-called "base effects" from oil are close to flipping to inflationary from deflationary. Oil's base effects have been mostly negative since August 2024, exerting downward pressure on annual inflation rates.

If that changes, it may be harder for the Federal Reserve to justify interest rate cuts. The Fed targets a "core" annual inflation rate, but more expensive oil raises the cost of producing goods and providing services, some of which is borne by the consumer.

The Impact of AI on the Economy and Markets | May 28, 2026 | Torsten Slok's The Daily Spark | Apollo Global

Apollo: The chart book available here https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/pdf/daily spark/2026/may/28/OddLots ImpactOfAI v2.pdf looks at the impact of AI on the economy and financial markets.