A Crude Awakening | March 2026 | Jeff Currie (Carlyle) | Report

Jeff Currie: "In my latest paper, co-authored with James Gutman, we examine how vulnerabilities in key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could reshape supply expectations, shift risk premia, and affect broader macro conditions. Incremental production elsewhere offers only partial offsets, and structural geopolitical pressures will persist."

"Oil is the rare earth of macro system, a critical material for which as yet substitutes are not in place. The world is mid-transition, and thus more vulnerable to an oil shock, not less."

"Uncertainty alters behavior across producers, consumers, and investors. The security premium is the hoarding premium and can amplify price movements and drive asset allocation decisions beyond the energy complex."