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Global Market Movements & Geopolitics

  • Global Market Movements & Geopolitics
  • Central Bank Policy: Indonesia & Japan
  • Singapore Economic Deep Dive

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  • Global Market Movements & Geopolitics
  • Central Bank Policy: Indonesia & Japan
  • Singapore Economic Deep Dive
Equity/April 23, 2026/3 min read/youtu.be

Thursday: Oil up as Strait of Hormuz stays blocked | 5 in 5 with ANZ

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This summary covers the key financial and economic updates from the ANZ 5 in 5 podcast aired on Thursday, April 23rd, focusing on global market movements, central bank policies in Indonesia and Japan, and a deep dive into Singapore's economic resilience amidst oil price shocks.


Global Market Movements & Geopolitics

  • Equities & Sentiment: US stocks trended upward following strong corporate earnings and President Trump’s indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire. The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq gained 1.4% as the "AI trade" returned, and the Dow Jones added 0.5% [00:01:40].

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  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Published
April 23, 2026
Read time
3 min read
Progress0%
  • Energy Blockade: Oil prices climbed as the US and Iran continued to block and board ships in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI futures rose 3.5% to $92.79 per barrel, while Brent crude returned to levels above $100, rising 3.2% to approximately $111.60 [00:01:31].
  • Safe Havens & Bonds: Gold prices rose 0.8% to $4,755 an ounce, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained flat at 4.293% [00:01:54].
  • Currency Dynamics: The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2% due to a "risk-off" sentiment triggered by the last-minute delay of the second round of Islamabad talks. The Australian dollar remained flat at 71.61 US cents, while the Kiwi rose 0.15% to 59.09 US cents [00:02:03].

  • Central Bank Policy: Indonesia & Japan

    • Bank Indonesia (BI): The central bank held rates at 4.75% as expected. However, it signaled a hawkish shift, explicitly stating readiness to use the policy rate as a stabilization instrument to maintain Rupiah stability if necessary [00:02:17].
    • BI Strategy: For now, the bank is prioritizing active market intervention and raising shorter-end yields to support capital inflows and prevent disorderly currency moves [00:02:50].
    • Japan Trade Surplus: Japan’s trade surplus widened in March, with exports and imports beating expectations. Analysts expect imported inflation to feed through in the coming months as higher oil and gas prices impact the broader supply chain [00:03:15].
    • Bank of Japan (BOJ): The BOJ is expected to hold rates next week due to downside risks to growth stemming from Middle East developments. A 25 basis point rate rise is now considered more likely for June [00:04:05].

    Singapore Economic Deep Dive

    • MAS Monetary Policy: As a small open economy, Singapore manages inflation via the exchange rate. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) recently tightened policy by increasing the pace of appreciation for the Singapore Dollar to combat imported inflation [00:04:40].
    • Inflation Forecasts: MAS revised its 2026 inflation forecast to an average of 1.5% to 2.5%. While they anticipate a near-term acceleration, they expect inflation to tail off later in the year, provided energy prices do not remain permanently elevated [00:05:41].
    • July Outlook: Analysts expect the MAS may need to tighten policy again in July to ensure inflation expectations remain well-anchored [00:06:12].
    • GDP Resilience: Singapore’s GDP contracted by 0.3% sequentially in Q1 2026, which was significantly better than the market's forecast of a 0.9% contraction. The year-on-year growth rate remains healthy at 4.6% [00:06:42].
    • Sector Performance: The quarterly contraction was a technical pullback driven by the manufacturing sector and does not yet reflect broad impacts from global conflict [00:06:57]. Final Q1 GDP numbers and updated growth forecasts are due in May [00:05:32].

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