Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

In his report "Investing in a Divergent Economy," Chief Global Strategist David Kelly outlines how the U.S. economy is currently defined by significant, growing disparities that mask a stable "average" economic path.

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Dimensions of Economic Divergence

Kelly identifies three primary gaps shaping the current economic landscape:

• The Rich vs. The Poor: Inequality is widening, as the top 10% of households now own 62% of assets and command a significant share of income. While spending among wealthy households remains robust, average American consumers are feeling the strain of negative real wage growth.
• Tech vs. The Rest of the Economy: The tech sector is driving growth, with the top 10 companies accounting for over 41% of the S&P 500 and 33% of its total earnings. This is further fueled by a massive surge in hyper-scaler capital spending, which is expected to rise from $416 billion in 2025 to $739 billion in 2026.
• Attitudes vs. Reality: There is a distinct "perception gap" where consumer sentiment has fallen to record lows, even while the stock market has reached all-time highs. This gloom is exacerbated by political polarization and the nature of modern social media algorithms.