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Report, Blogs & Insights/June 2, 2026/2 min read/resources.wisdomtree.com

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

Source

Professor Siegel maintains a constructive and optimistic outlook on the equity markets, highlighting their ongoing resilience. This positive backdrop is driven by a combination of easing Treasury yields, a recent dip in oil and gasoline prices, and a strong, ongoing investment cycle in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. While recent economic data (like revised Q1 GDP) showed some deceleration, forward-looking indicators point to continued economic expansion rather than a recession. Furthermore, a quiet but significant shift is happening in liquidity, with M2 money supply expanding for three consecutive months. Siegel also pushes back against recent media claims that the equity risk premium has vanished, arguing that such claims make the fundamental mistake of comparing real stock yields to nominal bond yields.


Key Takeaways

  • Market Resilience & Easing Headwinds: Risk assets are being supported by WTI crude retreating toward $87/barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield backing down to around 4.44%. While Siegel expects energy prices to stay structurally elevated due to geopolitics, the recent dip relieves near-term pressure on consumers.

References

  1. Original source (resources.wisdomtree.com)

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Published
June 2, 2026
Read time
2 min read
Progress0%

  • Steady Economic Growth: Despite Q1 GDP being revised down to 1.6%, Q2 growth estimates remain solid between 2% and 3%. Low jobless claims and stable ISM surveys show no signs of an impending recession.

  • The AI Productivity Lag: While massive spending on AI data centers and computing infrastructure is happening right now, measurable aggregate productivity gains have been subdued over the last two quarters. Siegel remains highly optimistic, noting that the actual productivity payoff historically lags behind the initial infrastructure boom.

  • Improving Liquidity Conditions: M2 money supply and deposit growth have expanded for three straight months. While not nearly as aggressive as the post-pandemic surge that sparked inflation, this renewed credit creation is historically constructive for both economic activity and stock valuations.

  • The Valuation Misconception: Siegel strongly corrects a Wall Street Journal claim that the equity risk premium has disappeared. He explains that comparing a stock's earnings yield (~5% real return that grows with inflation) to a nominal 5% Treasury bond is a major financial error. When correctly compared against Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) where real yields are around 2%, equities still command a healthy 2.5% to 3% premium.

  • Federal Reserve Watch: Ahead of the next Fed meeting, Siegel advises investors to look past governance speculation and instead focus on policymaker signals, noting that any public comments from Kevin Warsh could become highly influential.

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