Indices Open Lower | Mean Reversion Trade Playing Out In Nifty IT Index: Laurence Balanco, CLSA | CNBC TV-18

1. Speaker Details & Global Macro Framework

• Speaker: Laurence Balanco, Technical Analyst at CLSA.
• US Dollar Index (DXY) Structural Bear Market: The dollar index broke beneath its crucial 100 support level in April of last year (2025). From a technical aspect, this structural breakdown turns the previous 100 level into a major overhead resistance line and signals the peak of a 14-year dollar bull market that initiated at the 2010 structural lows [00:12:49]. Historical macro currency cycles from the 1985 peak and the 2000 peak show that the dollar tends to derate over a 5 to 7-year period, resulting in ultimate peak-to-trough falls of between 40% and 50% []. The current move represents a 15% decline from its 2022 peak, indicating a multi-year structural bear market with sequential weakness ahead [].