PodcastMay 29, 20266 min readyoutu.be

The Week Ahead - The Final Countdown | 29 May 2026 | The Week Ahead Podcast

This brief analyzes the Nomura podcast recorded on Thursday, May 28, 2026, and published on Friday, May 29, 2026. The discussion spans major macroeconomic themes, central bank trajectories, and geopolitical impacts across the US, Developed Markets, Asia-by-Japan, and Europe.

Speaker Profiles & Roles

[00:00:26] Dominick Bunning: Host and Head of G10 FX Strategy, speaking from Milan.
[00:01:35] Chief Economist for Developed Markets, joining from New York.

References

Original source (youtu.be)

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Jun 2, 2026

[00:11:21] RBI Monetary Policy Expectations: Nomura expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deliver a hawkish hold at its upcoming meeting, diverging from market pricing which builds in a 25 basis point hike.
[00:11:43] Orthodox Policy Constraints: Inflation in India is currently sitting below the RBI's midpoint target. Historical evidence from 2013 proves that hiking rates strictly to defend a currency does not yield desired outcomes.
[00:12:14] Anticipated RBI Revisions: Anticipated policy shifts include upward revisions to inflation projections, slight downward marks to GDP growth, and a migration of the liquidity stance from "adequate" to closer to "neutral."
[00:13:19] Indian Rupee (INR) Defensive Measures: To curb ongoing INR depreciation at all-time lows without utilizing orthodox rate hikes, policy authorities show limited appetite for further depreciation. A joint Government-RBI effort could deploy the following macroprudential tools:
1. [00:13:48] Current Account Restrictions: Tightening limits on non-essential imports (gold and silver), restricting electronic imports, and lowering outward remittance limits for residents.
2. [00:14:10] Capital Inflow Stimulants: Launching diaspora bonds targeted at non-resident Indians (historically raising 1% to 1.4% of GDP, equating to over $40 billion today), restricting outward direct investments, or issuing sovereign dollar bonds.
3. [00:14:41] Macroprudential/FX Direct Action: Activating bilateral swap lines, shortening export repatriation timelines, limiting hedge ratios for importers, or establishing a special FX window specifically to meet oil import demand.
[00:15:27] Regional Inflation and Central Bank Trends:
- General Trend: Headline inflation for the month of May is expected to pick up across most Asian countries due to higher oil prices and localized food price pressures (e.g., Indonesia and the Philippines). Core inflation remains stable for most countries.
- Philippines (BSP): Headline inflation is tracking above 7.0% with a clear pass-through into core inflation. The BSP is expected to hike by 25 basis points in June, followed by two subsequent hikes in H2 2026.
- South Korea (BOK): Following a hawkish policy outcome, Nomura revised its call to add 75 basis points of cumulative rate hikes to the Bank of Korea's profile, predicting the initial hike to materialize in July. Headline inflation is expected to rise close to 3% (from 2.6%).
- Thailand (BOT): Stands out as an exception with lower headline and softer core inflation expected for May; the Bank of Thailand is projected to hold flat this year.

The Week Ahead - The Final Countdown | 29 May 2026 | The Week Ahead Podcast

Speaker Profiles & Roles

References

Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

RBI Needn’t Hike Rates; Must Nudge Capital Flows By Bearing Hedging Cos Of ECBs: Chetan Ahya | 2 Jun 2026 | CNBC-TV18

The Week Ahead - The Final Countdown | 29 May 2026 | The Week Ahead Podcast

Speaker Profiles & Roles

References

Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

RBI Needn’t Hike Rates; Must Nudge Capital Flows By Bearing Hedging Cos Of ECBs: Chetan Ahya | 2 Jun 2026 | CNBC-TV18

Global Market Dynamics & Geopolitics

US Macroeconomic Outlook & Federal Reserve Shift

Asia Macro: RBI Monetary Stance & FX Intervention Tools

European Macro: Stagflationary Signals & Central Bank Divergences

Finding Balance: Growth, Income and Liquidity | 1 Jun 2026 | Morgan Stanley

Speaker Profiles & Roles

References

Related nuggets

Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

RBI Needn’t Hike Rates; Must Nudge Capital Flows By Bearing Hedging Cos Of ECBs: Chetan Ahya | 2 Jun 2026 | CNBC-TV18

Speaker Profiles & Roles

References

Related nuggets

Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

RBI Needn’t Hike Rates; Must Nudge Capital Flows By Bearing Hedging Cos Of ECBs: Chetan Ahya | 2 Jun 2026 | CNBC-TV18

Global Market Dynamics & Geopolitics

US Macroeconomic Outlook & Federal Reserve Shift

Asia Macro: RBI Monetary Stance & FX Intervention Tools

European Macro: Stagflationary Signals & Central Bank Divergences

Finding Balance: Growth, Income and Liquidity | 1 Jun 2026 | Morgan Stanley