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Rory Johnston: the juxtaposition of crude prices (white, Brent) and the S&P 500 (blue) last week is a great snapshot of the current macro momen
"We're 10 or 15% into the impacts of this and you can see it you can feel it..." - Eric Schmidt [00:02:51]
"The belief in San Francisco is this [super intelligence] occurs within two to three years." - Eric Schmidt [00:06:10]
"I kept asking my friends when does the asymptote arrive and when does the curve slow…
Shattered Assumptions And The Energy Quandary | Louis-Vincent Gave | Gavekal Research Report
Most estimates of the impact of the war show 20% of global oil markets disrupted... If so, it would be the largest disruption in terms of barrels and % of spare capacity since WWII. #J.P.Morgan
AI Summary
Core thesis
AI Summary & Insights
Core Thesis The global economy is colliding with a hard constraint: you can print money, but you cannot print physical commodities (“molecules”). This creates a structural shift where real assets (energy, metals, commodities) regain pricing power over financial assets.
Key Arguments
Excerpt from the article.
The ongoing crisis can be viewed in two main ways: - Iran and its nuclear program as the central focus of the conflict. In this narrow lens, the war revolves primarily around containing or neutralizing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If that’s the case, any impact is short-lived. Regardless, the US will benefit, even in the long term, from the closure of the Hormuz strait - *Iran as…
"Why did Iran actually decide to go after countries that did not attack them? It relates to Iran's broader strategy... They want to restore deterrence and their way of doing that is indicating to everyone... that attacking us is not worth it." - Greg Brew [00:00:00]
"The bigger scenario that the Iranians are more concerned about is a scenario where…
Here is a comprehensive summary of the Bloomberg Television interview with Jeff Currie of Carlyle, breaking down the severe global macroeconomic implications of the current energy supply shock.
Overview Jeff Currie details an escalating global energy crisis defined by a massive divergence between physical commodity shortages and lagging financial markets. Describing the situation as a "molecular contagion," he…
"We've calculated about 15 million barrels per day of oil crude plus products LPG stranded... the amount of volume we're talking about on the supply loss for the Middle East is very similar to the amount of demand loss [during COVID]." - Host [00:00:32]
"The straight can't stay closed for a month because the world economy will not survive, but that…
"We need to electrify and in fact power demand has to accelerate for us to be energy self-sufficient we don't have oil we don't have gas what we have is coal right and lots of sunshine right" - Nikhil Nigania [00:03:57]
"Our transmission network is better than US which many people find surprising but it is still lagging renewable capacity…
One of the best educational resources is Palgrave Handbook of International Energy Economics...* - Dalius - Special Sits
"we've already seen around 8 and a half million barrels a day of production shut in on those producers already that's not... what's exports have been lost that's actual shut in the ground" - Rory Johnston [00:10:03]
"if you turn them off everything kind of solidifies in the pipes and like that's not great so you want to be able to get these things…
- McKinsey: Reliable and affordable energy has been an enduring source of strategic advantage for the United States (Image). Access to plentiful energy has lowered input costs for businesses, improving productivity, enabling scale, and improving household well-being. - At independence, Americans consumed twice as much energy per person as Britons, given abundant firewood. As discussed, ready access to coal…
"By simply chronicling the pace of the transition and talking about the role of natural gas, people ascribe all sorts of assumptions and motivations to you, even when there’s no basis for doing so." - [Michael Cembalest]
"This has been mostly a linear transition... very different from the S-shaped technological adoption curves that you see in the technology sector. These are industrial transitions. And they…
1. TL;DR
2. Key Findings
Jeff Currie: "In my latest paper, co-authored with James Gutman, we examine how vulnerabilities in key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could reshape supply expectations, shift risk premia, and affect broader macro conditions. Incremental production elsewhere offers only partial offsets, and structural geopolitical pressures will persist." "Oil…
Following the military campaign by the U.S. and Israel resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, global energy markets are facing heightened volatility. This summary outlines the strategic implications for supply, pricing, and the broader economy.
Immediate Disruptions & Infrastructure Impact The conflict has moved beyond regional tension into a "tail risk" scenario involving…
Global energy demand rose by 2% y/y in 2024 to hit a fresh record high and driven primarily by rising electricity needs. In fact, all regions of the world reported a sharp growth in electricity demand, with the Middle East and Asia Pacific registering the strongest increase in electricity generation at 5.30% and 5.40%, respectively that year.
Meanwhile, Goldmans Sachs expects global power…
"I feel like I earned my MBA there right. You kind of learn more on the way down than when times are good." - John Arnold (Reflecting on his early career at Enron through its bankruptcy) [00:01:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15eRYd_-bEk&t=0h1m16s)
"The ability to disconnect from one's emotions... sticking to the process that doesn't mean you don't change your position depending on whether you're…
The Energy Situation, Explained for Tech People | a16z