Rory Johnston: the juxtaposition of crude prices (white, Brent) and the S&P 500 (blue) last week is a great snapshot of the current macro momen

Shattered Assumptions And The Energy Quandary | Louis-Vincent Gave | Gavekal Research Report

Most estimates of the impact of the war show 20% of global oil markets disrupted... If so, it would be the largest disruption in terms of barrels and % of spare capacity since WWII. #J.P.Morgan

One of the best educational resources is Palgrave Handbook of International Energy Economics...* - Dalius - Special Sits

• McKinsey: Reliable and affordable energy has been an enduring source of strategic advantage for the United States (Image). Access to plentiful energy has lowered input costs for businesses, improving productivity, enabling scale, and improving household well-being. - At independence, Americans consumed twice as much energy per person as Britons, given abundant firewood. As discussed, ready access to coal…

"By simply chronicling the pace of the transition and talking about the role of natural gas, people ascribe all sorts of assumptions and motivations to you, even when there’s no basis for doing so." - [Michael Cembalest]

"This has been mostly a linear transition... very different from the S-shaped technological adoption curves that you see in the technology sector. These are industrial transitions. And they…

1. TL;DR

• Downgrade pure-play energy transition momentum: Renewables and EVs face severe economic friction, as solar-plus-storage remains structurally more expensive than natural gas baseload, and reduced Trump Administration subsidies threaten to stall US decarbonization efforts (p. 2).

2. Key Findings

Jeff Currie: "In my latest paper, co-authored with James Gutman, we examine how vulnerabilities in key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could reshape supply expectations, shift risk premia, and affect broader macro conditions. Incremental production elsewhere offers only partial offsets, and structural geopolitical pressures will persist." "Oil…

Global energy demand rose by 2% y/y in 2024 to hit a fresh record high and driven primarily by rising electricity needs. In fact, all regions of the world reported a sharp growth in electricity demand, with the Middle East and Asia Pacific registering the strongest increase in electricity generation at 5.30% and 5.40%, respectively that year.

Meanwhile, Goldmans Sachs expects global power…

GS: While our long-run crude oil price forecast is above the forwards (Brent 2030 forecast of $75), our near-term base case remains that Brent moderates from $68/bbl to a bottom of $54 by 2026Q4 for two reasons. - First, we expect a 2026 surplus of just over 2mb/d assuming the January supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and the US ease and no large new supply disruptions (if US policymakers focus…

"High for longer. Our analysis suggests that the investor rotation in hard assets can keep several metals prices high for longer, including above what physical fundamentals justify, which we think is the case right now for copper."

Overview > This report analyzes the impact of the "Hard Assets Rotation"—a shift where active investors move capital from "soft assets" (equities and bonds) into…

Oil drilling in the US

China is the majority of solar PV manufacturing capacity globally.

Annual CO2 emissions #ContraryResearch

Globally, energy production is growing quickly. In 2024, total energy production was at 30,853 terawatt-hours (TWh), up about 25% from a decade prior. #TechTrendsReport2026 #ContraryResearch

Big Oil's Cash Returns | Industry has paid out $536 billion to shareholders since 2021

US oil supply plateauing...Bull case for Crude?

A big reversal due or a paradigm shift in the relationship? #Gold #Oil ?

The Hard Asset Supercycle (150-Year View)

Are we entering a new era for Gold, Silver, and Oil? Historical data suggests these three assets are fundamentally linked as a single "Hard Asset" class.

Even the US Government is now admitting what we have been long forecasting: we are in a post-shale world. Position accordingly! - @Eric Nuttall

Need to read "The World for Sale" by Javier Blas, Jack Farchy