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Distilling high-signal intelligence into digestible insights.
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Note: Video recorded live on May 6, 2026.
"The interesting twist in his argument is that what we're seeing now is we're ending up with a version of neoliberalism that's stripped of its international component." - Janet Gornick [00:02:07]
"The first sort of reduction of inequality between the countries has in some sense produced the conflict between China and the…
Note: This episode was recorded on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Burns discusses the issues that will take center stage when Trump meets Xi—from trade and technology to Iran, Taiwan, and Ukraine—and the enormous stakes for U.S.-Chinese competition going forward.
"I've always thought, and certainly confirmed by my years in China, it's structural this competition. No matter who's in power in Washington and in Beijing…
"If you're a solitary regional hegemon, you just don't face many threats to your vital interests from other great powers." - [Joshua Byun] [00:06:17]
"No matter how bad or intense security competition gets in a world with one regional hegemon, it won't be as bad as it will be in a world where you have two regional hegemons." - [Joshua Byun]…
"the idea is like if you tackle a really hard problem or able to scale the business really really quickly you know like the more sort of like barriers you were able to overcome and especially this idea of like grinding... just like really heavy emphasis on uh how hard you work like sheer effort" - Kyle Chan [00:02:44]
"disrupting government policy is is like a no no…
"China today has more oil in storage than the rest of the world combined it has more natural gas in storage than the rest of Asia combined it has more fertilizer in storage than the rest of the world combined." - Louis Gave [00:00:08]
"Today there's three countries that stand out that borrow disproportionately from foreigners uh one is yours the UK...…
"basically in China we have no 19th century to some extent at all because basically the idea of the century was only emerged in the beginning of 20th century" - Wang Hui [00:13:26]
"it convey a very strong sense of the synchronicity global synchronicity it's almost not possible define China only with its own past the all others became our past" -…
Henry H. McVey | Global Macro & Asset Allocation - Third visit to Beijing & Hong Kong in 2026. On-the-ground assessment covering GDP drivers, AI, supply chains, consumers, and the investment outlook.
Tags: Stable GDP · AI Surge · Deflation Easing · Regime Change
Executive Summary
"The first rule of economic warfare is simple: don’t weaponize false chokepoints."
" The United States ushered in the age of economic warfare by learning to weaponize chokepoints. Now, other countries have learned to do the same. Its advantages have eroded not only because others have built competing forms of leverage but also because Washington has too often used its own advantages carelessly."
Snippets
"If we had a Democratic Republic of Iran and if we had a completely right-leaning pro-Trump Venezuela and they still got their crude into the open market, China wins. China's good. China doesn't care." - Marco Papic [00:06:41]
"First and foremost, America does not export crude oil... it's a net importer of crude oil. It's an exporter of…
China Shock : Change in Chinese market share for different technologies between 2005 and 2023. #FT
"this is a moment of deep global confusion the old world order is cracking before our eyes red lines that we once thought countries would never cross are now seen as mere suggestions" - Host [00:00:00]
"development should be the primary human right and not necessarily political rights" - Manoj Kewalramani…
"the 1989 protests in China are not as it were the vain uh heroic charge of human rights activists against the monolithic totalitarian state... but much more familiar if you like protests over the process of reform in China" - Adam Tooze [00:04:28]
"inflations are first and foremost distributional struggles over who gets access to credit who gets to raise prices who…
How the Chinese Economy Works. | Hudson Institute
Read the entire article @ SCMP. Below is a short summary of his core arguments:
The 5-Year Prediction for the Yuan
Rogoff predicts the Chinese yuan will become a vital global reserve currency within the next five years. He notes a pivotal shift in China’s leadership, where President Xi Jinping has now explicitly…
"Going global is critical for many, many of the players as well... the domestic market is saturated in many ways." - Professor Ben Shenglin [00:03:14] "China holds about 30% of the manufacturing capacities... and that massive domestic market is not only a market but also the giant test field for new technology and new adoptions." - **Miss Ding…
Abstract:
Real estate has long been central to China’s growth model, yet since 2018 its contribution has declined sharply, turning the sector from a key engine of expansion into a major drag on economic activity. While policy tightening triggered the downturn, it reflects deeper structural imbalances in a sector that, together with its upstream and downstream linkages and infrastructure, accounts for nearly…
"Not having [commodities] is much more expensive than the storage cost, so that not paying that storage cost was actually a false saving." - Louis Gave [00:05:51]
"Drone warfare has completely changed warfare... look at the US Navy, the most powerful navy the world has ever seen bar none absolutely, but it can't get within 300 miles of the Hormuz…
"even if you believe that political instability or economic uncertainty might arrest China’s upward climb, that might not change the trajectory of Chinese science. All of those Chinese scientists and engineers will still be there. Their labs and facilities have already been built. Their equipment and instruments have already been bought. Their technicians are already trained. That will still be true if Xi Jinping…
China’s economic vulnerabilities: Understanding the structural slowdown | EU Institute for Security Studies | #Report
China - A fragile power? How Europe can use its economic leverage over Beijing | EU Institute for Security Studies | #Report
"China hasn't just survived it's emerged stronger than ever on the world stage and that's because after years of careful planning China has essentially made itself tariff proof." - Natalie Kitroeff [00:00:19]
"The overall trade surplus of China... became even more immense last year when it reached 1.2 trillion." - Keith Bradsher…
Electronics manufacturing expands the number of metals demanded from refineries, which in return justifies investments in companion mineral extraction capacities. Goods such as air conditioners and batteries increase the scale of major metals demand. And in metals processing, larger scale lowers costs.
Large volumes of metals consumed by prior iterations of appliances, combined with China’s production in…
"China produces 200 million televisions and 1.5 billion smartphones per year. Producing the TV sets guarantees offtake of 25 to 30 metals, while the phones require close to 60 metals. Televisions require the same critical minerals for which many governments are trying to develop alternative suppliers, but there are far fewer potential buyers outside of defense-related supply chains because commercial demand for…
The country’s dominant position in metals supply chains is not only in electrified metals and rare earths but also in other minor metals like scandium, tungsten, and antimony which are integral to advanced technologies in aerospace and semiconductor supply chains. While a part of China’s dominant position in supply chains comes from natural endowments, the network effects associated with the…