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Apollo: The chart book (available here) looks at why gold prices have increased so much since 2022, and why they have declined more recently.
Reasons why gold prices started going up in 2022:
invaded Ukraine
-…
The definition of private credit #Apollo
Apollo Global: Outlook for Public and Private Markets #Report
Apollo: In recent years, employment in the software sector has declined by about 200,000 jobs. The factors driving this decline could include AI, Fed hikes or immigration restrictions, see the first chart. Either way, the 200,000 decline in software employment should be compared with the 63 million people who find a new job each year, the 38 million who voluntarily quit their jobs and the 21 million who are laid…
US Housing Outlook: Higher mortgage rates not helpful (March 2026) | Apollo
Apollo: Since the trade war began, the dollar has traded weaker than interest-rate differentials would have predicted, see chart. We expect to see convergence between FX and yield differentials as higher-for-longer rates in the US continue to attract investment from abroad and put upward pressure on the dollar.
*Note: Chart - 1-year yield differential = 1-year German government bill minus 1-year US T-bill. pp =…
Sentiment Destruction, Not Demand Destruction
Apollo: Daily data are starting to show a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment across the income distribution...
But there is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing. The third, fourth and fifth charts show that weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel…
Apollo: For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt, see chart.
Apollo: AI is driving returns in equity markets because of the growing size of tech in the S&P 500 index, and this is a problem for both institutional and individual investors, see chart.
With hyperscalers issuing more debt, AI is increasingly also driving returns in bond markets.
And AI currently makes up 60% of investments in venture capital.
Apollo: Ten trillion dollars in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months, see chart.
The budget deficit this year is about $2 trillion.
Total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers.
Apollo: When the Fed began hiking in 2022, traditional rate-sensitive sectors like office construction rolled over quickly. But data center construction continued to surge, as investors and hyperscalers judged that AI-driven returns would exceed the higher cost of capital.
In effect, one of the traditional channels through which monetary tightening slows activity, a pullback in commercial construction, has…
Apollo: There are no signs of a slowdown in corporate earnings expectations, see chart.
What say? too much optimism or justified?
Apollo: "Recessions are occurring less frequently, see chart. For investors, this means full-blown credit cycles occur less often. Between recessions, investors should prepare for sector-specific cycles, such as the current downturn in software, where one or two subsectors face distress while the rest of the economy is fine. **The bottom line is that credit opportunities arise not just during recessions,…
Apollo: The share of financial wealth in bank deposits is 51% in Japan, 37% in Germany and 11% in the United States, see chart. The bottom line is that there is enormous potential for consumers to put more money into yield products.
The new Space Race...?
Apollo: "More than 4,500 objects were launched into space in 2025, up from 600 in 2019."
Apollo: "The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up almost 40% of the index, and if Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are added later this year, the concentration could approach 50%, see chart. The bottom line is that the S&P 500 basically doesn’t offer much diversification anymore."
OASDI stands for Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance. It’s the official name for what most people simply call Social Security in the United States.
It’s the official name for what most people simply call Social Security in the United States. Currently, Social Security is a major driver of "mandatory spending," and as the program exhausts its trust funds, it will exert immense pressure on…
$48trn in US retirement assets #Apollo
The global population age 65 and over will rise from 0.8bn to 1.6bn by 2050: Significant need for retirement savings and new retirement products #Apollo
Apollo: Chart book (available here) documents the growing retirement crisis.
Apollo : Ten facts about retirement savings
First, there was a lot of chatter about the Treasury Debt Maturity Wall. Now add Software to that.
Apollo: Software faces a massive $40 billion maturity wall in 2028, dominated by lower-rated B- credits, exposing the sector to refinancing risks amid AI disruption and rates higher for longer, see chart.
A Ticking Time Bomb?
Apollo: With margin debt at record highs, any downturn in stocks risks turning into a sharper correction as leveraged investors are forced to sell into falling markets, see chart.
Apollo: Chart book (available here) looks at the simulated effects of $100 oil prices on the economy.
Overview
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Apollo: Consumer spending data from the New York Fed shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income households than low-income households, see the first chart. The stronger growth in consumer spending for high-income households is driven by the K-shaped growth in wages and wealth, see the second and third chart.