The definition of private credit #Apollo

US Housing Outlook: Higher mortgage rates not helpful (March 2026) | Apollo

Apollo: Since the trade war began, the dollar has traded weaker than interest-rate differentials would have predicted, see chart. We expect to see convergence between FX and yield differentials as higher-for-longer rates in the US continue to attract investment from abroad and put upward pressure on the dollar.

*Note: Chart - 1-year yield differential = 1-year German government bill minus 1-year US T-bill. pp =…

Sentiment Destruction, Not Demand Destruction

Apollo: Daily data are starting to show a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment across the income distribution...

But there is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing. The third, fourth and fifth charts show that weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel…

Apollo: For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt, see chart.

Apollo: Ten trillion dollars in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months, see chart.

The budget deficit this year is about $2 trillion.

Total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers.

Apollo: There are no signs of a slowdown in corporate earnings expectations, see chart.

What say? too much optimism or justified?

Apollo: "Recessions are occurring less frequently, see chart. For investors, this means full-blown credit cycles occur less often. Between recessions, investors should prepare for sector-specific cycles, such as the current downturn in software, where one or two subsectors face distress while the rest of the economy is fine. **The bottom line is that credit opportunities arise not just during recessions,…

OASDI stands for Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance. It’s the official name for what most people simply call Social Security in the United States.

It’s the official name for what most people simply call Social Security in the United States. Currently, Social Security is a major driver of "mandatory spending," and as the program exhausts its trust funds, it will exert immense pressure on…

$48trn in US retirement assets #Apollo

The global population age 65 and over will rise from 0.8bn to 1.6bn by 2050: Significant need for retirement savings and new retirement products #Apollo

Apollo: Chart book (available here) documents the growing retirement crisis.

Apollo : Ten facts about retirement savings

• The US population is aging
• 18% of the US population is 65 years or older. In 2050 it will be 23%.
• 54 million retired workers receive social security benefits
• More retirees get money from social…

A Ticking Time Bomb?

Apollo: With margin debt at record highs, any downturn in stocks risks turning into a sharper correction as leveraged investors are forced to sell into falling markets, see chart.

Apollo: Chart book (available here) looks at the simulated effects of $100 oil prices on the economy.

Overview

• Model estimates from a version of the Fed’s model show a modest macroeconomic drag from a persistent shock to oil prices
• Persistent shock ($100 through 2027) - Impact fades over several quarters, peak effects:

•…

Apollo: Consumer spending data from the New York Fed shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income households than low-income households, see the first chart. The stronger growth in consumer spending for high-income households is driven by the K-shaped growth in wages and wealth, see the second and third chart.

Strong Net Foreign Buying of US Assets, see chart. Note: Data is a 12-month rolling sum. | The Daily Spark

Average Tenure of Companies in the S&P 500 Index: 15 Years | March 1, 2026 | The Daily Spark

Equity Market Trading Volumes Rising - The average daily US equity market turnover now exceeds $1 trillion... | February 27, 2026 | The Daily Spark

Entire Market Structure Exposed to a Big Move | February 25, 2026 | The Daily Spark | Apollo Global | (Click Source)

Disruption Creates Opportunities for Investors | Apollo | Feb 21, 2026

...Treasury auction metrics show that there continues to be very solid demand for the long end in US Treasuries. #Apollo

Looking at the entire global universe of public bonds outstanding shows that almost 90% trade at a yield lower than 5%. With inflation near 3%, investors only get a 2% real return each year

The incoming data has surprised significantly to the upside in recent weeks, but long rates have not moved higher, see chart.