Recessions Becoming Less Frequent | Torsten Slok's The Daily Spark | Apollo Global

Apollo: "Recessions are occurring less frequently, see chart. For investors, this means full-blown credit cycles occur less often.

Between recessions, investors should prepare for sector-specific cycles, such as the current downturn in software, where one or two subsectors face distress while the rest of the economy is fine.

The bottom line is that credit opportunities arise not just during recessions, but also when there are sector-specific cycles during expansions.  Examples are

• the energy credit cycle from 2014 to 2016,
• the brick-and-mortar retail cycle from 2016 to 2019,
• the commercial real estate cycle from 2022 to 2024 and
• the software cycle since late 2025."