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GeopoliticsGlobal power, conflict, and policy intelligenceShowing 24 of 24
Global power, conflict, and policy — the stories reshaping the world order.
GeopoliticsShowing 24 of 24
> "inflation isn't just a number it's a behavior pattern if workers expect prices to rise they demand higher wages if firms expect higher wages they raise prices." - **Financial Historian** [[00:02:51](https://youtu.be/S6ZnNROHv9g?si=kQ3o-WnX-l5iYiqg&t=171s)] > "once inflation expectations detach from policy credibility you're no longer adjusting the economy you were chasing it." - **Financial Historian**…
Excerpt from the article. > ***The ongoing crisis can be viewed in two main ways:*** - *Iran and its nuclear program as the central focus of the conflict. In this narrow lens, the war revolves primarily around containing or neutralizing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If that’s the case, any impact is short-lived. Regardless, the US will benefit, even in the long term, from the closure of the Hormuz strait* - *Iran as…
"inflation isn't just a number it's a behavior pattern if workers expect prices to rise they demand higher wages if firms expect higher wages they raise prices." - Financial Historian [00:02:51]
"once inflation expectations detach from policy credibility you're no longer adjusting the economy you were chasing it." - Financial Historian…
Excerpt from the article.
The ongoing crisis can be viewed in two main ways: - Iran and its nuclear program as the central focus of the conflict. In this narrow lens, the war revolves primarily around containing or neutralizing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If that’s the case, any impact is short-lived. Regardless, the US will benefit, even in the long term, from the closure of the Hormuz strait - *Iran as…
"Why did Iran actually decide to go after countries that did not attack them? It relates to Iran's broader strategy... They want to restore deterrence and their way of doing that is indicating to everyone... that attacking us is not worth it." - Greg Brew [00:00:00]
"The bigger scenario that the Iranians are more concerned about is a scenario where…
The Petrochemical Products Flow Chart
Saudi Arabia is pumping crude through its East-West Pipeline from its fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The kingdom typically exports around 6 million barrels per day (bpd) through Hormuz. The pipeline can take up to 5 million bpd, but Yanbu has rarely loaded more than 2.5 million bpd.
The United Arab Emirates also has a pipeline that can transport some crude to bypass the strait.…
"we've already seen around 8 and a half million barrels a day of production shut in on those producers already that's not... what's exports have been lost that's actual shut in the ground" - Rory Johnston [00:10:03]
"if you turn them off everything kind of solidifies in the pipes and like that's not great so you want to be able to get these things…
Share of Global Seaborne Energy Shipments | Through Strait of Hormuz in 2025
Following the military campaign by the U.S. and Israel resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, global energy markets are facing heightened volatility. This summary outlines the strategic implications for supply, pricing, and the broader economy.
Immediate Disruptions & Infrastructure Impact The conflict has moved beyond regional tension into a "tail risk" scenario involving…
Torsten Slok (Apollo) : The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil trade, making any disruption an immediate risk to energy prices and macro outcomes. Chart book, available here, examines energy demand and supply, as well as the significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
The results indicate that **positive oil price moves and data surprises significantly lift yields, higher policy uncertainty lowers them, and geopolitical shocks have no direct…
"The egos and realpolitik of an American president, a Russian dictator and a Saudi crown prince have proved more important than any econometric model or Wall Street bank forecast."
"Is this the subliminal message behind the 30 percent rise in gold and the surreal 65 percent increase in silver in January? Which…
"Price is Right": oil is the best performing asset in 2026 on US Iran, and geopolitical shocks. Following geopolitical shocks in past 90 years oil is the best performer over 3 months (up 18%), then gold (6%) US stocks (4%); but 6 months after geopolitical shocks gold keeps outperforming (up 19%), stocks stall, while oil reverses all gains. Or "Rock the Geopolitics = trade oil, own gold."
Strait of Hormuz: 13mpbd, ~31% of Global Seaborne Oil Trade. Also a key route for LNG, ~20% of global LNG shipments passing through it, mostly from Qatar.
//A perspective on US Shale
In 1643, Evangelista Torricelli used a tube of mercury to first measure pressure. In 1897, German mechanical engineer Rudolf Diesel invented the diesel engine with financial help from the Krupp family, financiers of the Third Reich. Four thousand years ago, the Egyptians invented the pump. > > Collectively, the above are the **bedrock of…
#China #Oil #HormuzStrait #CSIS
#Crude #Geopolitics
Increasing barrels of Oil on water #Bloomberg
BBG: IEA estimates a Supply will outpace demand by ~4mbpd in 2026
Bloomberg: Fiscal Breakeven Price of Oil Producers vs Average expected price in 2026
China's Strategic Energy Metrics via Strait of Malacca (2026 Projection)
As of January 2026, the Strait of Malacca remains the primary artery for China’s energy security. While total volume through the Strait is higher, the figures below represent the specific portion destined for or controlled by China.
(Source: Google Gemini) | Metric | China's Specific Volume | % of China's Total Imports | | :--- | :--- |…
CHART OF THE DAY: As the debate starts about whether — and if so, how — Europe should respond to US taffifs on Greenland, let's take a look at the energy situation. The EU swapped Russian for American depdency: today, US accounts for ~16% of oil and ~45% of its LNG of imports. The data above is for 2024 (and does not cover UK). The data for 2025 is only available to 3Q, but shows a similar trend. - [Javier…
Will tremors be felt across Canada & Russia? #US/Venezuela #TheOilGambit? #Monroe-Doctrine-2.0? 🔗Post
