https://a16z.com/prediction-markets-they-grow-up-so-fast/

a16z:"...But, while earlier narratives may have suggested prediction markets were only viable during election cycles, Kalshi has seen significant growth in other sectors."

"At the time of the research conference, sports trading had just hit nearly $3 billion in weekly volume, roughly 80% of Kalshi’s total, largely driven by March Madness. Tarek and Luana framed this dominance as a phase."

"The more revealing stat: sports as a share of total volume was actually at an all-time low even as its absolute volume hit an all-time high. Every other category is growing faster."

"Tarek and Luana pointed to entertainment, crypto, politics, and culture as categories showing stronger user-growth — and better volume-retention cohorts than sports. Sports function as a mass-market catalyst; it’s a familiar, scheduled, emotionally engaging wedge product."

"But the company is seeing significant growth in its longer-tail markets that make up the remaining 20%+ of Kalshi’s volume, and that are going to be important to institutional hedging and information markets."

An institutional panel later corroborated this observation from the demand side.

• Goldman Sachs’ global co-head of equities, Cyril Goddeeris, described predictions related to macro events and CPI prints as the categories where Wall Street attention was most focused.
• CNBC’s EVP of growth Sally Shin said she was already using the Fed chair market and non-farm payrolls predictions as storytelling tools.
• And Tradeweb’s co-head of global markets, Troy Dixon, described a future where bulge bracket banks have dedicated prediction market trading desks, with financial contracts as the anchor product.