Are We in an Earnings Bubble? | The Week in Charts (7/13/26) | Charlie Bilello | Creative Planning
1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)
- The Core Thesis: The current macroeconomic cycle exhibits unique structural anomalies, notably an unsustainable 28% explosion in corporate earnings driven by one-off private market AI investment markups and severe supply-demand imbalances in semiconductors. Simultaneously, persistent inflationary pressures from geopolitical chokepoint disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are forcing the Federal Reserve into a hawkish stance, while an accelerating national debt crisis undermines promises of fiscal growth.
- Top Key Takeaways:
- Unusually high 28% YoY earnings growth in Q1 2026 is heavily distorted by non-operating private tech investment markups [01:01].
References
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