Southeast AsiaMay 29, 20265 min readyoutu.be

Friday: Australian data centre spending jumps | 29 May 2026 | 5 in 5 with ANZ

Host / Anchor: Bernard Hickey [00:00:09, 00:09:05]
Interviewer: Alex Tarrant [00:05:01]

References

Original source (youtu.be)

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Surplus Acceleration: Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered a budget that pulled forward New Zealand's projected fiscal surplus track by a full year—moving the target from June 2030 to the fiscal year ending June 2029 [00:02:02, 00:05:53]. Net core crown debt is now projected to peak lower than initial December updates indicated [00:02:02, 00:06:05].
Treasury Forecast Discrepancy: The Treasury's models assume nominal GDP will be $2 billion higher cumulatively through June 2030, leading to a massive $10 billion cumulative increase in the forecast tax take [00:05:01, 00:07:00].
ANZ Independent Critique: Miles Workman (ANZ Senior Economist) categorized the Treasury's back-half forecast horizon as highly optimistic [00:02:25, 00:05:16]. Workman argued there is no clear economic catalyst to drive this aggressive medium-term recovery, given that the model simultaneously assumes monetary policy normalizes (removing stimulus) and fiscal policy turns structural contractionary [00:05:25].
The Oil Shock Contradiction: ANZ pointed out that under a standard oil price shock scenario, corporate profits suffer, weighing on corporate tax take, hiring appetite, and wage growth [00:06:22]. The Treasury has chosen to look through this scenario, relying on technical rephasing and shifting spending forward into the current and subsequent fiscal years [00:06:47].
Monetary Policy & OCR Impact: In the year ending June 2027, the budget shows a slight drop in operating allowances but a larger expansion in capital allowances, resulting in roughly $2 billion in additional discretionary spending (equivalent to ~0.4% of nominal GDP) [00:08:09]. While a standard rule of thumb implies this could add 10 to 15 basis points of upward pressure to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), much of this capex is earmarked for imported defense equipment [00:08:35]. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to view this budget as a non-game-changer for domestic monetary policy [00:08:59].
Debt Issuance Surprise: Bond markets reacted to a surprise cumulative $6 billion reduction in government bond issuance guidance through June 2030 [00:06:12].

Friday: Australian data centre spending jumps | 29 May 2026 | 5 in 5 with ANZ

References

Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

RBI Needn’t Hike Rates; Must Nudge Capital Flows By Bearing Hedging Cos Of ECBs: Chetan Ahya | 2 Jun 2026 | CNBC-TV18

Friday: Australian data centre spending jumps | 29 May 2026 | 5 in 5 with ANZ

References

Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

RBI Needn’t Hike Rates; Must Nudge Capital Flows By Bearing Hedging Cos Of ECBs: Chetan Ahya | 2 Jun 2026 | CNBC-TV18

Global Macro & G3 Market Dynamics

New Zealand Fiscal Budget Deep Dive

Australian Macro Indicators: Consumption vs. Capex

Bank of Korea Tightening Cycle

Finding Balance: Growth, Income and Liquidity | 1 Jun 2026 | Morgan Stanley

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Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

RBI Needn’t Hike Rates; Must Nudge Capital Flows By Bearing Hedging Cos Of ECBs: Chetan Ahya | 2 Jun 2026 | CNBC-TV18

References

Related nuggets

Investing in a Divergent Economy | 1 Jun 2026 | Notes on the Week Ahead | David Kelly | J.P.Morgan

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience | June 1, 2026 | Professor Siegel Weekly Commentary | WisdomTree

RBI Needn’t Hike Rates; Must Nudge Capital Flows By Bearing Hedging Cos Of ECBs: Chetan Ahya | 2 Jun 2026 | CNBC-TV18

Global Macro & G3 Market Dynamics

New Zealand Fiscal Budget Deep Dive

Australian Macro Indicators: Consumption vs. Capex

Bank of Korea Tightening Cycle

Finding Balance: Growth, Income and Liquidity | 1 Jun 2026 | Morgan Stanley