Friday: Australian data centre spending jumps | 29 May 2026

Nuggets

Friday: Australian data centre spending jumps | 29 May 2026 | 5 in 5 with ANZ · Nuggets

Surplus Acceleration: Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered a budget that pulled forward New Zealand's projected fiscal surplus track by a full year—moving the target from June 2030 to the fiscal year ending June 2029 [00:02:02, 00:05:53]. Net core crown debt is now projected to peak lower than initial December updates indicated [00:02:02, 00:06:05].
Treasury Forecast Discrepancy: The Treasury's models assume nominal GDP will be $2 billion higher cumulatively through June 2030, leading to a massive $10 billion cumulative increase in the forecast tax take [00:05:01, 00:07:00].
ANZ Independent Critique: Miles Workman (ANZ Senior Economist) categorized the Treasury's back-half forecast horizon as highly optimistic [00:02:25, 00:05:16]. Workman argued there is no clear economic catalyst to drive this aggressive medium-term recovery, given that the model simultaneously assumes monetary policy normalizes (removing stimulus) and fiscal policy turns structural contractionary [00:05:25].
The Oil Shock Contradiction: ANZ pointed out that under a standard oil price shock scenario, corporate profits suffer, weighing on corporate tax take, hiring appetite, and wage growth [00:06:22]. The Treasury has chosen to look through this scenario, relying on technical rephasing and shifting spending forward into the current and subsequent fiscal years [00:06:47].
Monetary Policy & OCR Impact: In the year ending June 2027, the budget shows a slight drop in operating allowances but a larger expansion in capital allowances, resulting in roughly $2 billion in additional discretionary spending (equivalent to ~0.4% of nominal GDP) [00:08:09]. While a standard rule of thumb implies this could add 10 to 15 basis points of upward pressure to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), much of this capex is earmarked for imported defense equipment [00:08:35]. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to view this budget as a non-game-changer for domestic monetary policy [00:08:59].
Debt Issuance Surprise: Bond markets reacted to a surprise cumulative $6 billion reduction in government bond issuance guidance through June 2030 [00:06:12].

Friday: Australian data centre spending jumps | 29 May 2026 | 5 in 5 with ANZ

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Friday: Australian data centre spending jumps | 29 May 2026 | 5 in 5 with ANZ

References

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Robert Kaplan Exclusive | India's Growing Economic Potential Amid Global Challenges

BofA: The Consumer’s Summer Spending Surge | 15 Jul 2026

Must Read Research: SpaceX; The Next AI Winners; Europe’s Earnings Momentum; Buy Value | 14 Jul 2026

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