Robert Kaplan Exclusive | India's Growing Economic Potential Amid Global Challenges
1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)
- The Core Thesis: The surprise contraction in June CPI down to 3.5% grants the Federal Reserve near-term tactical breathing room to pause in July, yet secular inflation impulses driven by an unprecedented domestic infrastructure capex boom, global supply-side friction, and persistent oil levels at $85 per barrel will maintain pressure on the Fed to preserve a hawkish posture. Crucially, the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve remains fundamentally vulnerable to structural supply-demand imbalances and a sticky fiscal deficit, completely distinct from direct Fed funds rate actions.
- Top Key Takeaways:
- [01:10] U.S. June CPI registered a sharp drop to 3.5%, marking the steepest single-month decline since April 2020 and offering the Fed essential breathing room for its July policy meeting.
References
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