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Podcast Overview & Speakers

  • Podcast Overview & Speakers
  • [00:01:17] The Strait of Hormuz Crisis
  • [00:01:53] Critical Commodity Data & Global Supply Shocks
  • [00:03:11] Downstream Impacts: Tech, Metals, and Food
  • [00:05:06] Regional Policy Responses & Economic Exposure
  • [00:07:03] Central Bank Strategy: 2022 vs. 2026
  • [00:10:19] Australia and New Zealand: The Anomalies
  • [00:12:26] Conclusion & Resources

On this page

  • Podcast Overview & Speakers
  • [00:01:17] The Strait of Hormuz Crisis
  • [00:01:53] Critical Commodity Data & Global Supply Shocks
  • [00:03:11] Downstream Impacts: Tech, Metals, and Food
  • [00:05:06] Regional Policy Responses & Economic Exposure
  • [00:07:03] Central Bank Strategy: 2022 vs. 2026
  • [00:10:19] Australia and New Zealand: The Anomalies
  • [00:12:26] Conclusion & Resources
China/April 25, 2026/4 min read/youtu.be

The Macro Brief – Fuel, food and fertilisers | The Macro Brief by HSBC Global Investment Research | HSBC

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This is a summary of the HSBC Macro Brief podcast episode titled "Fuel, food and fertilisers," featuring an in-depth analysis of how regional conflicts are reshaping global commodity markets and economic forecasts.


Podcast Overview & Speakers

  • Host: James Pomeroy, Global Economist at HSBC [00:00:25].
  • , Chief Economist for Global Commodities, Australia, and New Zealand at HSBC [].

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Reading

Published
April 25, 2026
Read time
4 min read
Progress0%
Guest:
Paul Bloxham
00:00:49
  • Core Sentiment: Bloxham identifies as the "most pessimistic macroeconomist" currently because the critical commodity disruptions have not yet been resolved [00:00:00].

  • [00:01:17] The Strait of Hormuz Crisis

    • Timeline: As of the recording, the Middle East conflict and the resulting disruption have lasted 7.5 weeks [00:01:38].
    • The Constraint: The fundamental economic constraint is the blockage of the Strait; the global impact depends on when and how it reopens [00:01:26].
    • Refining Disruptions: A "distributed lag" effect is underway. Refineries in Asia are just now starting to run low on feedstock [00:02:42].
    • Price Spikes: Beyond Brent crude, there are much sharper price rises in refined products like jet fuel and bunker fuel [00:02:52].

    [00:01:53] Critical Commodity Data & Global Supply Shocks

    The conflict represents a major negative supply shock across multiple sectors:

    • Oil & Gas: 20% of global oil and a similar proportion of global gas normally transit the Strait daily [00:01:59].
    • Sulfur: 25% of the world's sulfur comes from the Middle East [00:02:04].
    • Fertilizers: 45% of the world's fertilizer supply is sourced from this region [00:02:11].
    • Helium: 30% of global helium originates here [00:02:14].
    • Aluminum: 9% of the world's aluminum supply is affected [00:02:16].

    [00:03:11] Downstream Impacts: Tech, Metals, and Food

    • Industrial Inputs: Sulfur is a critical input for semiconductor production and the processing of metals like copper and nickel [00:03:17]. Supply constraints here put further upside risk on metal prices [00:03:28].
    • Agricultural Crisis: The price of Urea has essentially doubled due to the crisis [00:03:41].
    • Food Prices: Lack of fertilizer application now leads to lower crop yields later, creating long-term upward pressure on food prices [00:03:57].

    [00:05:06] Regional Policy Responses & Economic Exposure

    • Asia's Acute Shortages: Asia is the most affected region. Some countries have announced work-from-home mandates, shorter school weeks, and quantity constraints on fuel use [00:05:16].
    • China's Strategic Move: China announced it will stop exporting sulfuric acid as of May 1st to ration domestic supplies for fertilizer production [00:05:30].
    • Exposed Nations: The Philippines and Thailand are highlighted as highly exposed, while Japan remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil imports [00:05:56].
    • Global Split: The US is more insulated, while the Gulf region, Europe, and especially Asia face a "super squeeze" — a supply-driven contraction rather than a demand-led "super cycle" [00:04:22].

    [00:07:03] Central Bank Strategy: 2022 vs. 2026

    • Nature of the Shock: This is a "pure negative supply shock" [00:07:08]. The textbook response is usually to "sit still" as growth slows naturally [00:07:18].
    • Comparison: In 2022, inflation was a mix of a supply shock (Russia-Ukraine) and a positive demand shock (pandemic savings and low rates) [00:08:03]. Today, there is no pent-up demand or high savings to cushion the blow [00:09:06].
    • Labor Markets: Unlike 2022, where workers had massive leverage for pay rises due to labor shortages [00:09:11], the current environment presents higher downside risks to growth [00:09:58].

    [00:10:19] Australia and New Zealand: The Anomalies

    • The RBA (Australia): Australia is the first G10 central bank (besides Japan) to be in a active hiking phase [00:10:29].
    • Productivity Issues: Australia faces high inflation and weak productivity growth, forcing the RBA to lean in with two rate hikes recently [00:10:46]. A economic downturn may be necessary to return inflation to target [00:11:16].
    • The RBNZ (New Zealand): Their cash rate remains "well below neutral" [00:11:35]. HSBC forecasts they will need to lift rates in the second half of the year to remedy this [00:11:50].

    [00:12:26] Conclusion & Resources

    • Contact: Questions can be sent to askresearch@hsbc.com [00:12:47].
    • Recommended Listening: The sister podcast "Under the Banyan Tree" with Fred Neumann and Herald van der Linde for more Asia-specific insights [00:12:35].

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