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00:00:03 | Episode Introduction & Speaker Details

  • 00:00:03 | Episode Introduction & Speaker Details
  • 00:01:32 | European Investor Sentiment & Geopolitical Dynamics
  • 00:02:29 | Sector Rotation Dynamics & The "AI Alternative" Dilemma
  • 00:04:04 | Factor Performance: High vs. Low Price Momentum
  • 00:04:36 | Earnings Revision Trends & Global Market Multiples

On this page

  • 00:00:03 | Episode Introduction & Speaker Details
  • 00:01:32 | European Investor Sentiment & Geopolitical Dynamics
  • 00:02:29 | Sector Rotation Dynamics & The "AI Alternative" Dilemma
  • 00:04:04 | Factor Performance: High vs. Low Price Momentum
  • 00:04:36 | Earnings Revision Trends & Global Market Multiples
Podcast/May 20, 2026/4 min read/youtu.be

London Fog | RBC's Markets in Motion

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00:00:03 | Episode Introduction & Speaker Details

  • Speaker: Lori Calvacina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
  • Podcast Series: RBC's Markets in Motion podcast.
  • Recording Date: May 18, 2026.
  • Core Agenda:
    • Takeaways from an institutional investor marketing trip to London and Switzerland.
    • Factor work tracking high price momentum outperformance and valuation expansion.
    • Corporate earnings sentiment and the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices.

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Published
May 20, 2026
Read time
4 min read
Progress0%
  • Contextualizing forward Price-to-Earnings (PE) multiples relative to late 2025 and early 2026 market highs.
  • Institutional Notice: The speaker noted that the 2026 Excel Survey (formerly known as the Institutional Investor All-America Research Survey) opens early on May 26th, 2026, and runs through June 12th, 2026, requesting client support for her nomination in the portfolio strategy category.

  • 00:01:32 | European Investor Sentiment & Geopolitical Dynamics

    • Trip Overview: Marketing meetings conducted in London and Switzerland revealed distinct thematic focus areas centered on AI earnings allocations, sector positioning, and a preference for portfolio positioning over predicting broad macro market directions.
    • Geopolitical Risk & Central Banks:
      • Iran: Discussed far less frequently than anticipated; investor sentiment reflected a generalized weariness rather than acute market panic.
      • Federal Reserve: Central bank discussions and recent macroeconomic inflation prints were surprisingly light.
      • RBC Model Adjustments: RBC actively walked clients through the structural impacts of higher structural inflation and long-term interest rate assumptions inside their proprietary S&P 500 valuation and earnings models, which were updated in their most recent target price release.
    • US Political Trajectory:
      • The upcoming US midterm elections were a recurring topic. Investors inquired about the likelihood of pre-election fiscal or monetary stimulus; RBC indicated that additional stimulus is highly unlikely.
      • RBC highlighted that political betting markets have begun shifting to express growing optimism for a potential Republican sweep, drawing significant curiosity and surprise from European allocators.
      • The health of the US consumer and the outlook for US small-cap equities were also frequent discussion points.

    00:02:29 | Sector Rotation Dynamics & The "AI Alternative" Dilemma

    • The AI Overweight Consensus: Global institutional investors broadly agreed that technology sectors generally, and artificial intelligence specifically, represent the primary bright spots in the global corporate earnings backdrop.
    • Data Verification: RBC presented data charts demonstrating how the Technology, Energy, and Materials sectors are actively driving upward revisions for 2026 consensus S&P 500 EPS growth forecasts. Furthermore, a chart illustrating expanding EPS growth leadership among dedicated AI companies in 2026—outpacing the traditional Magnificent 7 (MAG 7) and the broader S&P 500 index—was highly well-received by clients who noted their existing exposure had driven strong portfolio performance.
    • The Diversification Hurdle: Despite strong performance, investors expressed a clear desire to identify alternative, non-tech equity allocations to diversify risk. However, finding viable options with similar fundamental strength remains difficult:
      • Energy: Generated the highest level of European investor interest seen in a long time. RBC reiterated that valuations within the S&P 500 Energy sector remain fundamentally attractive.
      • Financials: Garnered stable discussion interest; RBC presented a chart showing that Capital Markets sub-sector valuations reached extreme highs last year but have successfully corrected and normalized to more reasonable entry points.
      • Defensives (Staples vs. Discretionary & Industrials): Consumer Staples generated interest because its fundamental problems are widely understood and its valuation is heavily discounted. This contrasts sharply with Consumer Discretionary (known headwinds but expensive multiples) and Industrials (companies emphasize operational resilience, but the sector looks expensive).
      • Healthcare: Investors shared mutual frustration with RBC regarding the sector's persistent weakness in corporate earnings revisions and negative institutional fund flows.
      • Utilities: RBC warned that the Utilities sector could face localized affordability headwinds stemming from political debates ahead of the US midterm elections.

    00:04:04 | Factor Performance: High vs. Low Price Momentum

    • Momentum Dispersion: RBC’s internal factor tracking model confirms that high price momentum stocks have continued to climb and structurally outperform low price momentum stocks within the S&P 500 index.
    • Multiple Tracking Matrix: RBC introduced a new analytical framework evaluating the Next 12 Months (NTM) PE multiples for both factors.
      • The data reveals a clear divergence: systematic multiple expansion within high price momentum names, contrasted against steady multiple contraction within low price momentum cohorts.
      • Valuation Health: Relative to low price momentum stocks, the absolute valuations of high price momentum names sit slightly above historical averages, but they are not currently considered severely overstretched or in bubble territory.

    00:04:36 | Earnings Revision Trends & Global Market Multiples

    • Broad-Based EPS Revisions: As the Q1 corporate reporting season winds down, the market is experiencing a meaningful, synchronized uptick in positive earnings sentiment via upward EPS estimate revisions in the US.
    • Granular Revision Cohorts: This positive revision velocity is observable across four distinct market layers:
      1. The largest mega-cap names by market capitalization.
      2. Pure-play, AI-focused equity names.
      3. The remainder of the S&P 500 index (excluding top mega-caps).
      4. Small-cap equities via the Russell 2000 index.
    • Geographic Divergence & US Leadership: The accelerating upward revision rate in the United States stands in stark, direct contrast to the continued deterioration of corporate earnings estimates in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Japan. This fundamental divergence serves as a strong tailwind to prolong the long-standing "US Leadership" asset allocation trade.
    • Market Temperature Valuation Metrics:
      • Forward PE multiples are actively re-approaching their prior cyclical peaks on a Next-12-Months (NTM) basis for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.
      • Crucially, multiples are not returning to their previous late 2025 and early 2026 highs when measured on a Fiscal Year 2 (FY2) forward basis.
      • Investor Psychology: This underlying statistical difference explains the apparent market paradox: it rationalizes the elevated levels of anxiety and angst observed among institutional allocators, while simultaneously providing the fundamental justification for the stock market's continued upward climb.

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