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On this page

I. Historic Analogy: The 1970s vs. Now

  • I. Historic Analogy: The 1970s vs. Now
  • II. Winners and Losers in the Current Market
  • III. The Evolution of Petrodollars
  • IV. De-dollarization and Reserve Assets
  • V. Regional Case Studies: Korea and the Gulf
  • VI. Geopolitics and the "Toll" Economy

On this page

  • I. Historic Analogy: The 1970s vs. Now
  • II. Winners and Losers in the Current Market
  • III. The Evolution of Petrodollars
  • IV. De-dollarization and Reserve Assets
  • V. Regional Case Studies: Korea and the Gulf
  • VI. Geopolitics and the "Toll" Economy
Middle East/April 17, 2026/4 min read/youtu.be

Brad Setser on the War in Iran and the Future of the US Dollar | Odd Lots

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This episode of the Odd Lots podcast features Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discussing the geopolitical and financial ramifications of the conflict in the Middle East, the shifting dynamics of oil markets, and the persistent dominance of the US dollar despite "de-dollarization" narratives.


I. Historic Analogy: The 1970s vs. Now

  • Contextual Differences: The 1973 shock was driven by the Yom Kippur War; the 1979 shock by the Iranian Revolution. Setser notes a reversal in current dynamics where the US and Israel are viewed as instigators rather than the Arab nations. [00:04:33]

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  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Published
April 17, 2026
Read time
4 min read
Progress0%
  • Price Magnitude: In the 1970s, oil doubled or tripled (eventually rising 6–7x). Currently, Brent and WTI are up roughly 50% from their lows. [00:05:07]
  • Physical Supply Gap: There is a massive "physical interruption" of 10 to 15 million barrels per day (representing 10–15% of global supply and 20–30% of global traded oil). [00:07:00]
  • Fungibility Issues: North Atlantic "sweet and light" oil cannot immediately replace the "medium sour" oil from the Gulf that Asian refiners are configured to process. [00:08:12]

  • II. Winners and Losers in the Current Market

    • The Losers: Traditional winners like Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE are sidelined because they cannot physically move oil through the Strait of Hormuz. [00:10:44]
    • Saudi Arabia’s Deficit: Unlike the 70s, Saudi Arabia is a "current account deficit country." They need $100 oil and 7 million barrels/day in exports to break even; currently, they are struggling at 5 million barrels. [00:11:08]
    • The Winners: Russia (if exports persist), Kazakhstan (the Tenge has strengthened significantly), Nigeria, Angola, South American exporters, and Norway (specifically benefitting from gas prices). [00:11:22]
    • North American Powerhouse: The US and Alberta, Canada produce over 25 million barrels/day, exporting 5 million to the world. [00:11:52]

    III. The Evolution of Petrodollars

    • Dollar Roots: Oil was not "forced" into dollars by a 1970s deal; it was always priced in dollars because the US oil industry led the world in the 1930s-1950s. [00:16:09]
    • Masked Purchases: In the 70s, Bloomberg reporters uncovered that the US began masking Saudi Treasury purchases at their request to hide the financial link while the US supported Israel. [00:17:11]
    • The 1990s Collapse: By 1995–2000, almost all the "petrodollar" wealth accumulated in the 70s had been spent due to low oil prices and high spending. [00:18:26]

    IV. De-dollarization and Reserve Assets

    • Portfolio Shares: International large-cap equity portfolios have a US share of 65–70%. The Saudi PIF (Public Investment Fund) has an international dollar share of 80%. [00:22:37]
    • Central Bank Reserves: Global reserve portfolios are at 57% dollars (a lower share than private equity because central banks prioritize safety over tech-driven returns). [00:23:02]
    • China’s "Hidden" Dollars: China officially reduced its dollar share to 55% (from 79% in 2005), but their state banks hold a 70% dollar share, effectively neutralizing the "de-dollarization" optics. [00:24:27]
    • The US Deficit: The US has a current account deficit of over $1 trillion, meaning it must sell $1 trillion in financial assets (debt and equities) annually, which the world continues to buy. [00:30:29]

    V. Regional Case Studies: Korea and the Gulf

    • South Korea: An "energy-poor" nation suffering from high oil prices but "printing money" through AI-driven Samsung memory chip sales. Retail investors are shunning local stocks for US tech. [00:27:13]
    • Saudi Arabia's Scale-back: Projects like "The Line" are being scaled back, and the "desert ski resort with artificial snow" has been cancelled. [00:35:07]
    • Saudi as a Borrower: Saudi Arabia borrowed $100 billion last year, making it the biggest borrower in the emerging world as it attempts to play in the "big boy league" with the Emiratis. [00:36:44]
    • The Rockefeller Comparison: Setser compares the Emiratis (UAE) to the Rockefellers—they have so much accumulated wealth they no longer need to run an oil field to remain dominant global investors. [00:37:36]

    VI. Geopolitics and the "Toll" Economy

    • Europe’s Energy Shock: The loss of Russian pipeline gas in 2022 was a far larger shock to Europe than the current oil volatility. [00:38:51]
    • Missile Defense: A major upcoming global challenge is the scarcity of missile interceptors. Europe will have to pivot to its own production as US supplies are prioritized elsewhere. [00:40:15]
    • China’s Currency Management: China intervenes in the market to the tune of $100 billion per month to keep its currency from adjusting, which forces it to continue buying dollars. [00:43:11]
    • Strategic Tolls: Setser defines a new era of "tolls":
      • Trump/US: A toll for access to the US consumer market.
      • China: A political toll (respecting the CCP) for access to rare earths/permanent magnets.
      • Australia: Coerced by China after criticising their COVID-19 handling. [00:44:41]

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