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On this page

I. Middle East Conflict & Global Market Volatility

  • I. Middle East Conflict & Global Market Volatility
  • II. Global PMI Surveys (April)
  • III. South Korea: Economic Resilience
  • IV. Philippines: Inflationary Measures
  • V. Deep Dive: Papua New Guinea (PNG) Policy Response
  • Podcast Details

On this page

  • I. Middle East Conflict & Global Market Volatility
  • II. Global PMI Surveys (April)
  • III. South Korea: Economic Resilience
  • IV. Philippines: Inflationary Measures
  • V. Deep Dive: Papua New Guinea (PNG) Policy Response
  • Podcast Details
Southeast Asia/April 23, 2026/3 min read/youtu.be

Friday: Oil up as US & Iranian navies board ships | 5 in 5 with ANZ

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Watch on YouTube ↗

This is a comprehensive summary of the "5 in 5 with ANZ" podcast for Friday, April 24, 2026, hosted by Bernard Hickey. The episode provides an overview of the global economic impacts of escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically focusing on oil markets, regional growth, and central bank actions.


I. Middle East Conflict & Global Market Volatility

  • Oil Price Surge: [00:00:43] Brent crude futures rose overnight to . [] West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also rose to .

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Published
April 23, 2026
Read time
3 min read
Progress0%
3%
$104 a barrel
00:01:35
3%
$95.90 US a barrel
  • Naval Hostilities: [00:00:51] The US Navy intercepted three Iranian oil tankers in and around India, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia.
  • Iranian Retaliation: [[00:00:58](https://youtu. paraffin/bRdQV5ZAfXc?t=0h0m58s)] Iranian speedboats boarded a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, taking it back to an Iranian port and releasing video footage to demonstrate control of the strait.
  • US Response: [00:01:09] Donald Trump stated that the US Navy would sink any vessels laying mines in the strait.
  • Investment Sentiment: [00:01:16] ANZ economist Henry Russell notes that a resolution appears distant as neither side is willing to meet the other's demands.
  • Equity & Bond Markets: [00:01:35] The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%, and the Dow fell 0.5%. [00:01:43] The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.4 basis points to 4.319%.
  • Commodities & Currencies: [00:01:54] Gold fell 0.5% to $4,730 an ounce. The US Dollar index rose 0.1%, while the Aussie dollar fell to 71.48 US cents and the Kiwi fell 0.6% to 58.69 US cents.

  • II. Global PMI Surveys (April)

    • Cost Pressures: [00:02:11] Surveys showed intensifying cost pressures, though manufacturing activity remained resilient.
    • Eurozone Contraction: [00:02:25] The Euro area PMI moved into contractionary territory, driven by the services sector. Outside of initial COVID-19 disruptions, this is the fastest rate of services contraction since the Eurozone debt crisis.
    • Central Bank Strategy: [00:02:45] Banks are expected to maintain a "wait and see" approach until Middle East tensions clarify.

    III. South Korea: Economic Resilience

    • Growth Data: [00:02:56] South Korea saw 1.7% growth in the March quarter (compared to December), which was double market expectations.
    • Sector Disparity: [00:03:13] Manufacturing output rose 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, whereas services output increased by only 0.4%, highlighting a concentration in the "chip cycle" and external demand.
    • Fiscal Cushion: [00:03:42] A supplementary budget was passed earlier this month to provide targeted support for households and energy-exposed sectors.

    IV. Philippines: Inflationary Measures

    • Policy Rate Hike: [00:04:04] The Central Bank hiked rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%.
    • Inflation Timeline: [00:04:27] Projections show inflation staying above the target range until 2027, with a return to the "tolerance zone" expected in 2028.

    V. Deep Dive: Papua New Guinea (PNG) Policy Response

    • Fuel Price Shielding: [00:05:08] Through direct subsidy payments to importers and temporary reductions in GST and excise on fuel, the PNG government ensured zero change in retail prices for petrol, diesel, and kerosene for April.
    • Stabilization Framework: [00:06:03] A 1 billion Kina fuel stabilization policy is currently active to maintain downward pressure on petroleum inflation.
    • Historical Context: [00:06:36] In 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, PNG utilized a 611 million Kina household assistance package, which included raising the income tax-free threshold twice.
    • GST Exemptions: [00:07:04] There are currently 13 essential goods exempt from GST; the government may expand this list.
    • Monetary Policy Pivot: [00:07:35] The Bank of Papua New Guinea may pause the Kina depreciation to lower landed fuel costs.
    • Central Bank Mandate: [00:08:15] The bank has shifted from a dual mandate (growth and price stability) to a single mandate: keeping inflation low and stable.

    Podcast Details

    • Date: [00:00:22] Friday, April 24th.
    • Host: [00:08:38] Bernard Hickey.
    • Speakers:
      • Henry Russell: ANZ Economist.
      • Crystal Tan: ANZ Economist.
      • Kosani Basak: ANZ FX Analyst.
      • Kushi Sen: ANZ Pacific Economist.

    Jun 2, 2026

    Pet Industry and the Bite of Higher Costs | 2 Jun 2026 | Thoughts on the Market | Morgan Stanley

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