Apollo Global: Outlook for Public and Private Markets #Report

Apollo: In recent years, employment in the software sector has declined by about 200,000 jobs. The factors driving this decline could include AI, Fed hikes or immigration restrictions, see the first chart. Either way, the 200,000 decline in software employment should be compared with the 63 million people who find a new job each year, the 38 million who voluntarily quit their jobs and the 21 million who are laid…

Apollo: AI is driving returns in equity markets because of the growing size of tech in the S&P 500 index, and this is a problem for both institutional and individual investors, see chart.

With hyperscalers issuing more debt, AI is increasingly also driving returns in bond markets.

And AI currently makes up 60% of investments in venture capital.

Apollo: When the Fed began hiking in 2022, traditional rate-sensitive sectors like office construction rolled over quickly. But data center construction continued to surge, as investors and hyperscalers judged that AI-driven returns would exceed the higher cost of capital.

In effect, one of the traditional channels through which monetary tightening slows activity, a pullback in commercial construction, has…

Apollo: The share of financial wealth in bank deposits is 51% in Japan, 37% in Germany and 11% in the United States, see chart. The bottom line is that there is enormous potential for consumers to put more money into yield products.

The new Space Race...?

Apollo: "More than 4,500 objects were launched into space in 2025, up from 600 in 2019."

Apollo: "The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up almost 40% of the index, and if Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are added later this year, the concentration could approach 50%, see chart. The bottom line is that the S&P 500 basically doesn’t offer much diversification anymore."

First, there was a lot of chatter about the Treasury Debt Maturity Wall. Now add Software to that.

Apollo: Software faces a massive $40 billion maturity wall in 2028, dominated by lower-rated B- credits, exposing the sector to refinancing risks amid AI disruption and rates higher for longer, see chart.

Torsten Slok:

The dramatic change in recent weeks in the narrative in markets from “the economy is strong” to “we are all becoming unemployed” is truly remarkable.

AI expectations are no longer just disrupting the equity market, with sectors such as software under pressure.

Torsten Slok:

Economic research institutions have identified sectors and occupations that are likely to be vulnerable to AI, see for example here,…

Tail Risks Rising: From 10% to 30% | Feb 24, 2026 | Apollo Global

Putting the total amount of hyperscaler capex into perspective | Feb 2026 | Apollo Global Management

Apollo: The amount of money being spent on capex by hyperscalers is enormous at around $646 billion in 2026.

The charts in this chart book put that number into perspective.

Specifically:

With a growing number of privately owned large companies, today there is a bigger need than ever before for private debt and equity solutions for both performing and distressed firms. #Apollo

Waiting for the AI J-Curve | Torsten Slok | Apollo

There are no signs of AI boosting profit margins for companies outside the tech sector, see chart.

The chart below shows consensus expectations for earnings for the Magnificent Seven and the S&P 493 since Liberation Day.

Earnings expectations for the Magnificent Seven have increased significantly. But expectations for earnings for the S&P 493 are basically unchanged.

**The bottom line is that the consensus does not expect AI to improve profitability for corporate America outside the tech…

The problems in software will not become a macro problem because the underlying US economy is about to take off.

There are three strong tailwinds to growth over the coming quarters:

1. Many financings for data centers have already been committed for 2026.

Korea: Strong Export Growth - driven by strong demand for semiconductors and autos. #Apollo #TheDailySpark

"Training and running frontier AI models requires capital on a scale rarely seen in the private sector. Hyperscaler capex has already tripled since 2023, and forecasts now point to more than $2.7 trillion of cumulative AI-related spending from 2025 to 2029.

What began as a largely self-funded capex cycle is quickly becoming a financing event. In the final three months of 2025 alone, Oracle, Meta, Google and…

Private Equity Returns to Its Roots - Apollo