Software Not a Macro Problem | Torsten Slok's 'The Daily Spark' | February 8, 2026

The problems in software will not become a macro problem because the underlying US economy is about to take off.

There are three strong tailwinds to growth over the coming quarters:

1. Many financings for data centers have already been committed for 2026.

2. There is strong political support for bringing back production facilities for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and defense.

3. Fiscal policy is expansionary and will, according to the CBO, lift GDP growth this year by 0.9 percentage points.

The bottom line is that it is very difficult to be bearish on the US economic outlook, and later this year the conversation in markets will change from talking about Fed cuts to instead talking about the Fed having to hike.

If the Fed is unwilling to hike in response to an overheating economy, it would increase the risk of higher long rates, a steeper curve and a lower dollar.