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"What America has and which no other country has ever had to the same extent is it has soft power... it's selling modernity and freedom and if you work hard and if you graft you can be like Americans and you can live the American dream." - James Holland [00:00:00]
"History doesn't repeat itself because of course it can't because that was then and…
"The problem for us is we need things that the Iranian regime either refuses to deliver, cannot deliver, or cannot sustain over a period of time, and so we're sort of negotiating with ourselves at this point." - Stephen Kotkin [00:02:44]
"What a regime is—we think a regime is just a bunch of people at the top... but a regime is a society... 10…
Note: Video recorded live on May 6, 2026.
"The interesting twist in his argument is that what we're seeing now is we're ending up with a version of neoliberalism that's stripped of its international component." - Janet Gornick [00:02:07]
"The first sort of reduction of inequality between the countries has in some sense produced the conflict between China and the…
"I do not know a single person who will put a probability on that scenario and say that that's going to happen you know with a significant amount of certainty." - Gita Gopinath [00:01:15]
"We are have the end of secular stagnation at this point. Secular stagnation was about the fact that there was not enough investment happening especially in the…
"dictators are enormously strong and enormously weak at the same time a dictatorship can be enormously weak because they're illegitimate... and at the same time they're strong because they control the apparatus of the state" - Darren [00:00:00]
"there's this hybridization that happened in certain parts of the Shia Muslim world through the…
Note: This episode was recorded on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Burns discusses the issues that will take center stage when Trump meets Xi—from trade and technology to Iran, Taiwan, and Ukraine—and the enormous stakes for U.S.-Chinese competition going forward.
"I've always thought, and certainly confirmed by my years in China, it's structural this competition. No matter who's in power in Washington and in Beijing…
"One of the days that we made an all-time high over 5% of the S&P companies actually made new 52-week lows on the same day and that there's only been four times in the last hundred years that that's ever happened." - Jim Bianco [00:00:53]
"It's AI that is the most important thing right now for financial markets and oil is still a backseat trade for…
"If you're a solitary regional hegemon, you just don't face many threats to your vital interests from other great powers." - [Joshua Byun] [00:06:17]
"No matter how bad or intense security competition gets in a world with one regional hegemon, it won't be as bad as it will be in a world where you have two regional hegemons." - [Joshua Byun]…
"Ultimately the change that has driven our politics to be so vitriolic is one that centers on how we live our everyday lives." - Marc Dunkelman [00:04:02]
"We went from having very thick middle rings... to having very thin middle rings and instead investing that social capital, those hours and that attention, in the inner and outermost." -…
"If there's one lesson that we've learned about capitalism and private enterprise it's this: the system seeks to maximize outputs per unit of inputs. And we haven't seen that [in AI]. There is no effort apparently to optimize." - Brad Conger [00:00:01]
"You cannot bake a certainty pie if your ingredients include, I don't know, berries. In this case, we can't truly…
Based on the article titled "US perspectives: Frontiers and frontlines: notes from the road" (published by Baillie Gifford in May 2026), here is a summary of the key insights gathered by the US Growth investment team during their field research across America:
1. Core Philosophy: Seeking 'Uncommon Understanding' Rather than relying solely on spreadsheets, the Baillie Gifford US Growth team conducts…
The Financial Times Alphaville (FTAV) article focuses on the "petrodollar" system and addresses the recurring narrative surrounding its alleged collapse or decline, particularly in light of contemporary geopolitical developments (such as discussions around OPEC dynamics and country diversification).
The article counters the alarmist theories regarding the end of the U.S. dollar's hegemony. Its main arguments…
"In this new modern mercantilist world, the US is looking at choke points around the world of places where it can garner resources that China might need. China on the flip side has built out choke points themselves knowing things that we need." - Bridgewater Speaker [00:00:49]
"AI of course going through the biggest capex buildout since World War II."…
"strategists like anybody else can get sucked into the emotions of the moment... I think the numbers really force you to think through the math and saying even if it is different this time how is it." - Lori Calvasina [00:03:43]
"we talk about earnings kind of the fast lane and the slow lane and the fast lane is everything AI related and the slow lane…
Apollo: The parallels with the energy shocks in the 1970s are worrying, see chart and here. The last mile of fighting inflation is a marathon rather than a sprint. Combined with the ongoing fiscal challenges, the bottom line is that there are a lot of upward pressures on rates across the curve, see also…
Apollo: During US recessions, the budget deficit typically widens by around 4% of GDP as unemployment benefits surge and tax revenues collapse, see here.
That would be manageable if the US were entering a potential recession from a position of fiscal strength. It is not. In fact, the US has never entered a…
"We need to be capability bounded, not industry bounded... you need to be in the part of the value chain where you can create more value than others, otherwise you're going to fail." - Charles Koch [00:10:18]
"If you want to hire somebody with bad values 'cause you like them or something, hire them slow and stupid... so we can catch them real…
"The first rule of economic warfare is simple: don’t weaponize false chokepoints."
" The United States ushered in the age of economic warfare by learning to weaponize chokepoints. Now, other countries have learned to do the same. Its advantages have eroded not only because others have built competing forms of leverage but also because Washington has too often used its own advantages carelessly."
Snippets
"If we had a Democratic Republic of Iran and if we had a completely right-leaning pro-Trump Venezuela and they still got their crude into the open market, China wins. China's good. China doesn't care." - Marco Papic [00:06:41]
"First and foremost, America does not export crude oil... it's a net importer of crude oil. It's an exporter of…
"I would equate it to um having your dentist say 'Here you need a root canal take this shotgun put it in your mouth and pull the trigger and that'll get rid of the root canal.'" - Luke Gromen [00:02:34]
"There's no atheists in foxholes and there's no free markets in wartime." - Luke Gromen…
Summary : NYLIM Macro Pulse — April 2026
"Macro Spillovers from the Strait"
The Theme