Monetary PolicyApril 18, 202614 min readyoutu.be

What The West Can Learn About Romes Collapse | Freddie New | Peter McCormack

"Over the past 100 years the pound sterling has lost about I think 95 96% of its purchasing power in the last century... by the time of Diocletian [the denarius] was 3% of what it had been in the time of Marcus Aurelius." - Freddie New [00:01:36]

"Money is crucially important for gigantic power structures like the Roman Empire and complex civilizations like our own because it really underlines who is going to end up in power and who's going to end up making decisions that affect the economy." - Freddie New [00:02:55]

References

Original source (youtu.be)

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Data Point	Value	Context	Timestamp
Pound Sterling Purchasing Power Loss	~95-96%	Estimated loss of value over the last 100 years.	[00:01:36]
Denarius Purity Decline	3%	Remaining purchasing power/purity of the Roman Denarius by the time of Diocletian compared to Marcus Aurelius.	[00:02:03]
Victorian Sewers in UK	40%	Percentage of UK sewers still functioning originally built during the Victorian era.	[00:08:07]
UK Debt Servicing Cost	£110 Billion	Annual cost for the UK government merely to service the interest on its national debt.	[00:13:28]

The Coincidence of Wants Problem: The fundamental friction of barter systems where a trade can only occur if both parties simultaneously desire what the other has (e.g., trading a house for apples). Money was invented to solve this. [00:02:37]
The Soft Default via Inflation: Rather than choosing a catastrophic "hard default" (refusing to pay nominal bond values) or an impossible debt jubilee, sovereign states undergo a "soft default" by inflating the currency so the nominal amount of debt owed becomes worthless in real terms. [00:09:53]
Money Creation vs. Value Creation: The distinction that creating fiat currency via a central bank or commercial loan does not constitute creating actual societal value (e.g., infrastructure, businesses, education), though the two are dangerously conflated by the public. [00:20:04]
The "Hollow Men" Theory of Societal Collapse: The model that collapse is not a single apocalyptic event, but a gradual, insidious reduction in living standards, where homes get smaller, hours get longer, food quality drops, and individuals become increasingly isolated. [00:23:28]
The Laffer Curve: The economic theory used to illustrate that there is a sweet spot for taxation, and increasing the tax burden beyond a certain point results in decreased government revenue. [00:38:21]
The Welfare-Dependent Power Base: If the Roman Empire's foundation of political survival was the paid military, the modern state's foundation is the cohort of welfare recipients and civil servants. This demographic ensures governments can never act with fiscal conservatism without losing power. [00:42:36]
The Cincinnatus Dictator Model: A leadership archetype based on the Roman leader Cincinnatus, who was given absolute power to solve a singular crisis, successfully executed the task, and then immediately and voluntarily gave up power to return to civilian life. [00:49:41]
Liquidate, Immigrate, Accelerate: A modern mental model regarding the choice wealthy individuals and entrepreneurs face to flee a collapsing, high-tax empire to protect capital, rather than staying to fix it. [00:54:32]

The Origins of Coin Edges: Freddie New explains that early Roman emperors shaved small amounts of silver off coins to hoard wealth. The ridged edges we see on modern fiat coins are a direct historical legacy of attempts to prove a coin had not been "clipped" by the state. [00:03:14]
The Year of the Four Emperors: After Nero's death, Rome experienced massive instability with four different warlords declaring themselves emperor in a single year, highlighting the chaos when the military realizes it can dictate state control. [00:04:22]
Caesar Crossing the Rubicon: Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon under arms (reportedly uttering Alea Iacta Est), a treasonous act that officially ended the Republic and established the Empire. Mentioned to draw parallels to the height of the Victorian Era. [00:07:51]
Emperor Commodus in the Arena: Illustrating moral decay, New describes the horrific actions of Commodus (who was far worse in reality than in the film Gladiator), who would tie cripples together in the Colosseum and club them to death while dressed as Hercules. [00:11:53]
Caligula and Nero's Degeneracy: The deep moral rot of the Roman elites is highlighted by Caligula supposedly making his horse Incitatus a senator and having a golden statue of himself built, while Nero kicked his wife to death and forced a slave boy to marry him. [00:29:14]
Engineering Without Zero: The incredible infrastructure achievements of the Romans, such as the exact gradients of their aqueducts, were remarkably accomplished without the mathematical concept of the number zero. [00:33:46]
Diocletian and the Cabbages: Emperor Diocletian, known for his failed price controls, was one of the few Roman emperors to survive and retire. He moved to Croatia, where he lived out his days peacefully growing cabbages. [00:35:42]
AI Claude Managing the Podcast: McCormack shares an anecdote of setting up the AI assistant Claude to review his website. The AI identified missing meta-descriptions and autonomously logged into Squarespace to update every single podcast episode while McCormack relaxed. [01:08:07]

Books, Literature & Media:
- Gladiator (Film) - Used as a pop-culture reference point for Marcus Aurelius (played by actor Richard Harris) and Commodus. [00:01:56]
- The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon - A monumental 1.5-million-word historical text noted for attributing Rome's collapse heavily to moral decline. [00:16:19]
- "The Hollow Men" (Poem) by T.S. Eliot - Referenced in a 4chan post as a metaphor for the slow rot of living standards. [00:23:55]
- Dawn of the Dead (Film) - Used to contrast what real societal collapse looks like versus a sudden cinematic apocalypse. [00:23:46]
- When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson - Strongly recommended by Freddie New; chronicles the horrors of Weimar Republic hyperinflation. [00:53:08]
- The Law by Frédéric Bastiat - Recommended by McCormack for understanding the proper scope of government (defending life, liberty, and property). [00:58:53]
- The Blind Watchmaker by Richard Dawkins - Referenced for theories on the emergence of carbon-based life evolving from ancient silicon substrates. [01:10:54]
Tools, Platforms & Entities:
- 4chan / Substack: Platforms mentioned where the highly influential "treadmill" collapse post and McCormack's writings were shared. [00:22:06]
- Squarespace: The website backend managed autonomously by the Claude AI agent. [01:08:27]
- Tesco / Manchester City: Companies cited to illustrate the catastrophic mathematical failure of proposed 10:1 CEO wage-cap policies. [01:04:11]
- OpenAI / Anthropic: Major AI companies discussed in the context of their hard power influence and their relationship with the US military. [01:09:41]
- Bitcoin / The Lightning Network: Advocated as the only immutable hard money exit from fiat collapse, uniquely positioned for an AI agent economy. [01:06:30]
Podcast Sponsors Referenced in Transcript:
- Iren (iren.com): AI cloud data centers powered by renewable energy. [00:17:37]
- Monetary Metals: Platform allowing users to earn interest on physical gold paid out in more gold. [00:39:28]
- Ledn: Platform for collateralized Bitcoin loans without rehypothecation. [00:40:32]

What The West Can Learn About Romes Collapse | Freddie New | Peter McCormack

References

Kalshi Monthly Volume - Politics ($M) | Chart of the Day | Coatue

The BlackBerry Problem |18 May 2026 | The Mistakes Series | Malcolm Gladwell's Revisionist History

Partnership Perspectives: Network International | 2 Jun 2026 | Brookfield Perspectives

What The West Can Learn About Romes Collapse | Freddie New | Peter McCormack

References

Kalshi Monthly Volume - Politics ($M) | Chart of the Day | Coatue

The BlackBerry Problem |18 May 2026 | The Mistakes Series | Malcolm Gladwell's Revisionist History

Partnership Perspectives: Network International | 2 Jun 2026 | Brookfield Perspectives

Speakers & Credentials

1. Executive Summary

2. Chronological Table of Contents

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

Currency Debasement: The Denarius and the Pound Sterling [00:00:00]

The Separation of Money and Value [00:20:04]

Infrastructure Decay and Local Insolvency [00:25:21]

Shifting Power Bases: The Army vs. The Welfare State [00:42:36]

Failed Solutions and The Cincinnatus Ideal [00:35:06]

The Escape Hatch: The Solidus, Bitcoin, and AI [00:57:17]

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

6. Anecdotes

7. References & Recommendations

Full Episode: The AI Industrial Revolution | 2 Jun 2026 | Naval and Nivi

References

Related nuggets

Kalshi Monthly Volume - Politics ($M) | Chart of the Day | Coatue

The BlackBerry Problem |18 May 2026 | The Mistakes Series | Malcolm Gladwell's Revisionist History

Partnership Perspectives: Network International | 2 Jun 2026 | Brookfield Perspectives

References

Related nuggets

Kalshi Monthly Volume - Politics ($M) | Chart of the Day | Coatue

The BlackBerry Problem |18 May 2026 | The Mistakes Series | Malcolm Gladwell's Revisionist History

Partnership Perspectives: Network International | 2 Jun 2026 | Brookfield Perspectives

Speakers & Credentials

1. Executive Summary

2. Chronological Table of Contents

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

Currency Debasement: The Denarius and the Pound Sterling [00:00:00]

The Separation of Money and Value [00:20:04]

Infrastructure Decay and Local Insolvency [00:25:21]

Shifting Power Bases: The Army vs. The Welfare State [00:42:36]

Failed Solutions and The Cincinnatus Ideal [00:35:06]

The Escape Hatch: The Solidus, Bitcoin, and AI [00:57:17]

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

6. Anecdotes

7. References & Recommendations

Full Episode: The AI Industrial Revolution | 2 Jun 2026 | Naval and Nivi