Nuggets | Curated insights across markets, macros, AI, tech & geopolitics

"Driven by models because that was the big issue with Basel II is that you um I think they gave some of the banks a little bit too much discretion as to how to model their own capital requirements and so they said yeah let's scale that back..." - Chen Shu [00:01:57]

"It's only been partly implemented at at best and so it's largely been unimplemented…

"The weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional crisis; it is a profound exogenous shock to the global inflationary baseline." - Ken Rogoff [00:12:45]

"Chess teaches you to look five moves ahead; unfortunately, global economic policy is currently operating on a one-move time horizon." - Ken Rogoff…

"Is globalization on a retreat... actually the reality is probably different and the numbers are clearly not saying this. Global economic activity is holding up pretty well." - Murat Ulgen [00:01:27]

"When you look at intra-Asia trade it's still probably at the beginning phases it's only 24% versus intra-European trade of 60% so there's…

Quotes

"We've shifted a lot of the leverage from the private sector up to the public sector... this has implications for nominal GDP, wealth concentration, inflation levels, and market performance." - Lyn Alden [00:02:33] "If you raise rates in the face of inflation, you do slow down bank lending to a certain degree, but then you blow out…

"I don't think we come back to the status quo ex ante. I mean, we don't go back to $60 oil. We've done significant damage down the chain if you think about fertilizer and jet fuel." - Vincent Deluard [00:02:08]

"Treasuries serve the same role as the plagues in ancient Egypt... if you are a country that can be potentially harmed by…

"Over the past 100 years the pound sterling has lost about I think 95 96% of its purchasing power in the last century... by the time of Diocletian [the denarius] was 3% of what it had been in the time of Marcus Aurelius." - Freddie New [00:01:36]

"Money is crucially important for gigantic power structures like the Roman Empire and complex…

"You want to get paid to take on the risk. You don't want to pay to take on the risk. And that's what investors are doing right now." - David Rosenberg [00:23:09]

"Today the stock market drives the economy, not the other way around... everybody knows what their equity portfolio is doing and they're checking it like 10 times a day." - **David…

"one of the most important drivers of risk assets worldwide is the flow of money into markets i mean it seems common sense but it's often needs repeating" - Michael Howell [00:01:46]

"all money that is anywhere must be somewhere and it can't be in two places at once" - Michael Howell…

"financial repression is a very appealing tax because the people who are being taxed actually don't know they're being taxed because it's all super complicated and you need to have at least a solid understanding of economics to even begin to understand what's going on..." - Dr. Hanno Lustig [00:00:00]

"the Japanese public sector is arguably the…

"The best product Coca-Cola ever sold was their bonds, not their Coke." - Lyn Alden [00:00:42]

"Every currency system in the world has to grow or die, at least the way they're currently designed." - Lyn Alden [00:38:05]

"The system is based on having people hold the currency…

"If you're approaching a red light but it's still green you at least take your foot off the accelerator if you don't hit the brake what you don't do is floor it." - Rob Kaplan [00:08:44]

"I tend to look at structural drivers... academics are inclined to look at data, look at models... the problem with data is it's primarily cyclical data." - **Rob…

"One thing that is forever invariably true is that war is inflationary. War overstrains the productive apparatus that is uh it its purpose is to destruct and kill and um and to print money to finance those activities." - Jim Grant [00:04:49]

"The Federal Reserve has defined price stability as a 2% debasement of the currency... like a tax that…

"we've had years and years and years of big tech basically I guess generating infinite amounts of cash it feels like uh and now they are switching to actually spending some of that cash to build very expensive data centers" - Tracy Alloway [00:00:42]

"if you look at that ratio the value of all the firms in the US relative to the total cash flow…

"Basically economies are downstream of markets, markets are driven by liquidity or money flow that's certainly in our framework." - Michael Howell [00:03:10]

"Don't trade Bitcoin or gold, own them, and it's really as simple as that... they're monetary inflation hedges and we're moving into a world where the only thing the governments can do is…

"Iran doesn't have to beat the US military they just have to beat the US Treasury market..." - Luke Gromen [00:00:00]

"The global economy is an upside down pyramid with that little tip on the bottom being raw materials..." - Lyn Alden [00:14:10]

"Military action is literally putting…

"2025 was the industrial and precious metal bull market. Now we're in an energy commodity bull market, and I think ag will be the next commodity bull market after that." - Peter Boockvar [00:00:32]

"Just because a price increase doesn't show up at the consumer level and instead is at the producer level and gets eaten by margin doesn't mean that…

"we've been creating about $10 trillion of wealth a year and the consumption effect of that is about $400 billion a year and so the biggest thing that is driving the economy right now is the wealth effect" - Mark [00:03:31]

"when I talk to tech people one of the questions I always ask them is is this a winner take all on AI and they tend to say…

"I mean, the amount of CapEx spending that we have in this country is just extraordinary. I mean, these numbers are staggering... that's fueling the data center buildout, that then is fueling the power buildout, that's creating jobs." - Steven Mnuchin [00:03:20]

"The more we opened up to China, the more they invested in the US, the more they…