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Deep-DivesGlobalCurated insights across markets, macros, history, and intelligenceShowing 24 of 59
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Deep-DivesGlobalShowing 24 of 59
**Sentiment Destruction, Not Demand Destruction** > Apollo: Daily data are starting to show a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment across the income distribution... > **But there is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing.** The third, fourth and fifth charts show that weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel…
> "we are at the brink of a total collapse of the whole system" - **Marc Friedrich** [[00:01:13](https://youtu.be/qCndlsHG7nw?si=fWMuSmJu1sRwTO-m&t=1m13s)] > "every crisis since the late 80s Greenspan started it Bernanke all of the FED chairmen did the same... they never solved the problems they're always just put money on it and pushed it in the future" - **Marc Friedrich**…
Sentiment Destruction, Not Demand Destruction
Apollo: Daily data are starting to show a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment across the income distribution...
But there is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing. The third, fourth and fifth charts show that weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel…
"we are at the brink of a total collapse of the whole system" - Marc Friedrich [00:01:13]
"every crisis since the late 80s Greenspan started it Bernanke all of the FED chairmen did the same... they never solved the problems they're always just put money on it and pushed it in the future" - Marc Friedrich…
"The wonderful thing about archaeology is that what people find tomorrow could completely change our understanding." - Eric Cline [00:04:59]
"History does rhyme even if it doesn't repeat, so I'm a little wary that it might be we might be due for it anyway." - Eric Cline…
"power is what matters if you can make bullets and guns and the other side's got good arguments" - Michael Every [00:00:34]
"if we have the Titanic snap and technically it splits in two and part of the ship actually goes higher as part of sinking that's a technical irrelevance to me where the light boats is the question gold is the lifeboats" -…
"Inflation is going to continue to accelerate... Inflation is going to go into the double digits and who knows it may even go into the triple digits..." - Peter Schiff [00:09:32]
"If we kept track of unemployment and inflation... the way we did in the 70s, you would have to double pretty much both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate..."…
Apollo: Consumer spending data from the New York Fed shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income households than low-income households, see the first chart. The stronger growth in consumer spending for high-income households is driven by the K-shaped growth in wages and wealth, see the second and third chart.
"If governments wanted to go to gold they already could... the only thing that matters is the capital stack of fiat." - Brent Johnson [00:18:15]
"Gold is the natural historical hedge against... credit excess that may be used to finance wars that are destructive of the capital stock." - John Butler…
Comprehensive Summary: "Is the Market Correction Ending?" Speaker: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist Date: Monday, March 16, 2026
Executive Summary Mike Wilson argues that the current equity market correction, which began in late 2025, is entering its final "capitulatory" phase. While recent headlines focus on the Iran conflict and oil prices, Wilson suggests the market…
"The dollar appears to me to have to be in a long-term bear market and it has a lot to do with overinvestment by foreigners in the United States." - Jeffrey Gundlach (Discussing the macroeconomic shift against US assets) [00:03:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncp9-4nGFWQ&t=0h3m27s)
"They're more comfortable being wrong with a lot of company than being wrong alone." - Jeffrey Gundlach (Critiquing the herd…
US M2 money supply jumped +4.3% YoY, or $1 trillion in January 2026, to a record $22.44 trillion. This marks the 22nd consecutive monthly increase.
"The secret to being a civilized money manager is to grow up lower class you don't adopt all of the latestage capitalism effects." - Barry Ritholtz (On maintaining perspective in finance) 00:00:42
"History tells us that those sort of consensus views—that sort of fear—that tends not to be what happens. Usually it's not even something in the middle; it's…
Ed Yardeni: Foreign stocks have been outperforming US stocks since early last year. Contributing to this outperformance has been the weakening dollar over this period (chart). That's fueled lots of chatter about the so-called "Sell America Trade" and dedollarization. That's a bit ironic considering that during 2024 the chatter was about "American Exceptionalism."
We aren't giving up on the…
A long history of US Recessions #GoldmanSachs
"Currencies do not usually fade; they tend to collapse." - Daniel Oliver (Discussing the macroeconomic endgame for heavily indebted nations)
"This phase of the gold bull represents the world searching for an alternate asset of final settlement to balance international trade, a crisis external to the domestic dollar system." - Daniel Oliver (Explaining the true catalyst behind gold's recent price…
"Nothing stops this train... we're in fiscal dominance, that fiscal dominance is continuing, and that there are very very few narrow ways to get out of fiscal dominance in any sort of investing time horizon." - Lyn Alden (Explaining the relentless trajectory of US fiscal deficits) [00:04:55]
"The marginal price you'd pay for a liter of water a day is your entire net…
"[The] whole economic investment cycle is heavily impacted by fiscal deficits in a way that is historically not common on a sustained basis." - Lyn Alden (Defining the shift in market dynamics) [00:01:31]
"Gold only has on average a 1.5% annual supply growth rate... [it] doesn't pay a yield... but that's kind of the hurdle rate that you're comparing dollars…
US GDP growth is accelerating because of the One Big Beautiful Bill, the AI boom and the ongoing industrial renaissance. As a result, inflation pressures are building, driven by higher wages, higher commodity prices and a weaker dollar, see charts.
Employment growth in large companies is outpacing job growth in smaller companies. The source of the underperformance of small businesses could be AI or it could be the trade war.
"The U.S. economy is creating plenty of wealth. It’s just not creating many jobs."
BBG: Forecasters expect Friday’s report on gross domestic product to show the economy expanded 2.7% in 2025, a solid pace by any standard for a developed country. But employment barely grew, and the combination is…
"In its various Quantitative Easing programs, the Fed bought long-term debt and gave out overnight debt (interest paying reserves) in return. That undoes some of the interest rate protection the Treasury bought.
The wife went to the bank, and got the 30 year fixed. The husband went back to the bank and said no, no, swap that back to half floating. Interest rates went up, the wife thought “how wise I was.” The…
"After World War II ended, the Fed continued its wartime pegging of interest rates. The Treasury-Fed Accord, announced March 4, 1951, freed the Fed from that obligation."
"The Fed pegged long term interest rates at 2.5% during WWII, to hold down interest costs and keep up the prices at which the government sold debt. Inflation surged in 1947 and 1948 when price controls were lifted, but…
#BNY Monthly Checkpoints
World GDP 2026
