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Sentiment Destruction, Not Demand Destruction
Apollo: Daily data are starting to show a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment across the income distribution...
But there is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing. The third, fourth and fifth charts show that weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel…
"Every morning is a new headline and how one should deal with it. Sometimes the best thing is not to do anything about it." - PD Singh [00:04:07]
"I think we have the smartest businessmen in the world because they have picked really the right timing and the right price for some of the assets they picked up." - PD Singh…
"this two shall pass and uh we clearly had no inkling of what president trump will tweet but that one tweet i think has improved has changed things" - Prashant Jain [00:03:06]
"if you absorb 30 40 billion dollars of selling and you are down only 10%... it tells you a lot how resilient these markets have become apart from the economy" - **Prashant…
"shipping a little bit like the water that it flows on you plug up one area and suddenly it moves around" - Carrie Craig [00:01:46]
"we need bonds in the portfolio to protect us from recession risk but we need alternative assets in the portfolio to protect us from inflation risks" - Aaron Hussein…
Overview
This is QED Investors' assessment of India's fintech and financial services landscape after six years in the market. With 8 investments and $220M+ deployed, QED offers a grounded, practitioner's view — not a distant observer's take. The report is structured across five parts: why India matters, what makes it distinctive, QED's approach, portfolio proof points, and the next chapter.
**Part I: Why…
Abstract:
Real estate has long been central to China’s growth model, yet since 2018 its contribution has declined sharply, turning the sector from a key engine of expansion into a major drag on economic activity. While policy tightening triggered the downturn, it reflects deeper structural imbalances in a sector that, together with its upstream and downstream linkages and infrastructure, accounts for nearly…
"The world is exiting a peak period of like a unipolar power, very like a hyper power in the world..." - Lyn Alden [00:05:01]
"...just because you get back up to $150 oil, which historically has been awful... I do think that the economy is resilient enough to handle those types of similar nominal numbers of the past." - Lyn Alden…
"If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for more than four weeks, I think the world goes into recession." - Neelkanth Mishra [00:09:13]
"Compared to any other time in the past we are the best prepared to handle a crisis like this. Low fiscal deficits, slack in the economy, inflation is low, RBI sitting on reserves." - Neelkanth Mishra…
"we are at the brink of a total collapse of the whole system" - Marc Friedrich [00:01:13]
"every crisis since the late 80s Greenspan started it Bernanke all of the FED chairmen did the same... they never solved the problems they're always just put money on it and pushed it in the future" - Marc Friedrich…
"The wonderful thing about archaeology is that what people find tomorrow could completely change our understanding." - Eric Cline [00:04:59]
"History does rhyme even if it doesn't repeat, so I'm a little wary that it might be we might be due for it anyway." - Eric Cline…
"The future's very hard to go and identify, but I noticed the people who are very good traders are the people who react the quickest to changes because they're not so set." - Lloyd Blankfein [00:13:02]
"You can recover from losses and live to fight another day; you can't recover from being dead." - Lloyd Blankfein…
"power is what matters if you can make bullets and guns and the other side's got good arguments" - Michael Every [00:00:34]
"if we have the Titanic snap and technically it splits in two and part of the ship actually goes higher as part of sinking that's a technical irrelevance to me where the light boats is the question gold is the lifeboats" -…
"The idea that a rival economic power would not choose to build up its military and contest the number one power but instead accept a kind of subordinate status in which it subcontracts its foreign policy to the number one country is not only unheard of but violates every tenant of international relations theory." - Fareed Zakaria [00:12:52]
…
"Inflation is going to continue to accelerate... Inflation is going to go into the double digits and who knows it may even go into the triple digits..." - Peter Schiff [00:09:32]
"If we kept track of unemployment and inflation... the way we did in the 70s, you would have to double pretty much both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate..."…
Apollo: Consumer spending data from the New York Fed shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income households than low-income households, see the first chart. The stronger growth in consumer spending for high-income households is driven by the K-shaped growth in wages and wealth, see the second and third chart.
"If governments wanted to go to gold they already could... the only thing that matters is the capital stack of fiat." - Brent Johnson [00:18:15]
"Gold is the natural historical hedge against... credit excess that may be used to finance wars that are destructive of the capital stock." - John Butler…
"The only way to truly stabilize this system is for everyone to be willing to move to a global monetary equilibrium where the reference point is not one that can be printed, devalued, or defaulted on by anyone else. And that's gold." - John Butler [01:11:09]
"The United States has done more to tear down the rules-based order in the last 16 months…
"there are serious you know military academics which which exist and historians who would argue that we're already in World War III" - Michael Every [00:00:00]
"if you start from the premise that the market will solve all problems and resolves everything and that you don't need to take any political action at any point well you're not going to be…
@balajis : If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991) and the postwar order (1945). It would mark the moment when Eurasian…