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"I do not know a single person who will put a probability on that scenario and say that that's going to happen you know with a significant amount of certainty." - Gita Gopinath [00:01:15]
"We are have the end of secular stagnation at this point. Secular stagnation was about the fact that there was not enough investment happening especially in the…
Sources: FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Front-end rates are under upward pressure because inflation is higher for longer.
The belly of the curve is seeing upward pressure on yields because of hyperscaler issuance.
"Because we have outsourced our asset management to the indices we have sidestepped the fiduciary responsibilities that traditional asset managers are required to maintain... and basically outsource that to the indices." - Mike Green [00:11:58]
"When you introduce a data dependency you are inevitably driving with the rearview mirror." - **Mike…
The Financial Times article, "Six lessons from history’s greatest financial crises," argues that while the world of finance often suffers from historical amnesia, the past provides a vital blueprint for understanding modern instability. From the "clay tablets" of Babylon to the "synthetic risk transfers" of today, the mechanics of collapse follow remarkably consistent patterns.
Here is an insightful summary of…
"I don't think we come back to the status quo ex ante. I mean, we don't go back to $60 oil. We've done significant damage down the chain if you think about fertilizer and jet fuel." - Vincent Deluard [00:02:08]
"Treasuries serve the same role as the plagues in ancient Egypt... if you are a country that can be potentially harmed by…
"I wrote a report and I stuck it in a drawer. I literally took the report and I put it in my top drawer because nothing had happened yet... when it ...
"if you went back over the last six years this is the fifth time where we've had a pretty significant crisis in the first four months of the year..." - John Gray [00:01:00]
"what we're doing is taking either institutional capital or individual investor capital and we're bringing it right up to the borrowers and in that process we're lowering a bunch of…
"risk management is really about avoiding big losses and the winners will take care of themselves." - Dean Curnutt (quoting Howard Marks) [00:01:49]
"we largely invest without a chief economist or real significant macro view letting credit fundamentals be the ultimate driver of that return." - Wayne Dahl…
"Basically economies are downstream of markets, markets are driven by liquidity or money flow that's certainly in our framework." - Michael Howell [00:03:10]
"Don't trade Bitcoin or gold, own them, and it's really as simple as that... they're monetary inflation hedges and we're moving into a world where the only thing the governments can do is…
"2025 was the industrial and precious metal bull market. Now we're in an energy commodity bull market, and I think ag will be the next commodity bull market after that." - Peter Boockvar [00:00:32]
"Just because a price increase doesn't show up at the consumer level and instead is at the producer level and gets eaten by margin doesn't mean that…
"We have tons of bad policy that we made it worse for growth in America and growth is what creates everything capital formation capital R&D investment productivity." - Jamie Dimon [00:01:16]
"I believe that 30 years from now a lot of people your kids are probably working three and a half days a week they'll probably live to 100..." - **Jamie…
"Because our debt burden and the way we're financing the government with $2 trillion of deficits here since it's completely untenable, something has to give. If something is untenable, it has to stop." - Jeffrey Gundlach [00:00:03]
"I've been of the opinion that the secular decline in interest rates would definitely be over for long-term interest…
US Housing Outlook: Higher mortgage rates not helpful (March 2026) | Apollo
"If you're lending to a sovereign however there really isn't a bankruptcy code which already disadvantages creditors in terms of the workout solutions if things go really wrong." - Lupin Rahman [00:02:03]
"Often aspects of whether a sovereign is able to repay is beyond their control... It's not just about the basic credit risk, basic FX risk, basic volatility risk, or…
The Global Investment Strategy View | March 2026 | J.P. Morgan
Apollo: Ten trillion dollars in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months, see chart.
The budget deficit this year is about $2 trillion.
Total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers.
"You can't hit the global economy with a shock of that magnitude and not expect bad things to happen." - Jeff Currie [00:01:13]
"The 2-year note yield has now poked its head above the Fed funds rate, which is telling you the markets think that interest rates are going to go up." - Michael McKee…
"Unlike most of my predecessors I have a very healthy skepticism of elite institutions and elite opinion... I have a healthy regard for the market." - Scott Bessent[00:03:02]
"The crowd is right 85 or 90% of the time and that's the momentum but it's really that when things turn or when you could imagine a different outcome than the consensus is…
Of the US firms listed in 1900, some 80% of their value was in industries that are small or extinct today, including railroads, textiles, iron, coal and steel. Meanwhile, 70% of today's companies in the US come from industries that were small or non-existent in 1900. Technology and healthcare were almost totally absent from stock markets in 1900.
Investors often associate new technologies with "bubbles" and…
The global economy has altered enormously since 1900, with Figure 8 showing the relative rise and decline of various economies over the period. The financial market landscape has also transformed. Figure 3 shows that from a relatively evenly distributed global equity market in 1900, the US market now dominates, today accounting for around 62% of total world equity market value, despite its decline in relative…
1. TL;DR
2. Key Findings
Debt, Deficits & Global Imbalances: Are Capital Controls Back on the Table? #J.P.Morgan #Report