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Deep-DivesGlobalCurated insights across markets, macros, history, and intelligenceShowing 14 of 14
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> Apollo: Since the trade war began, the dollar has traded weaker than interest-rate differentials would have predicted, see chart. We expect to see convergence between FX and yield differentials as higher-for-longer rates in the US continue to attract investment from abroad and put upward pressure on the dollar. *Note: Chart - 1-year yield differential = 1-year German government bill minus 1-year US T-bill. pp =…
Excerpt from The Economist: **The fate of ancient coins offers uncomfortable lessons about dollar dominance** > The coins largely moved one way, from Rome to India, and goods moved the other. Whereas Romans bought Indian wares, Indians accumulated monetary claims on Rome. Evidence points to high external demand for Roman assets: the coins bore a particular pattern, came in sealed bags and travelled via…
Apollo: Since the trade war began, the dollar has traded weaker than interest-rate differentials would have predicted, see chart. We expect to see convergence between FX and yield differentials as higher-for-longer rates in the US continue to attract investment from abroad and put upward pressure on the dollar.
*Note: Chart - 1-year yield differential = 1-year German government bill minus 1-year US T-bill. pp =…
Excerpt from The Economist:
The fate of ancient coins offers uncomfortable lessons about dollar dominance
The coins largely moved one way, from Rome to India, and goods moved the other. Whereas Romans bought Indian wares, Indians accumulated monetary claims on Rome. Evidence points to high external demand for Roman assets: the coins bore a particular pattern, came in sealed bags and travelled via…
"power is what matters if you can make bullets and guns and the other side's got good arguments" - Michael Every [00:00:34]
"if we have the Titanic snap and technically it splits in two and part of the ship actually goes higher as part of sinking that's a technical irrelevance to me where the light boats is the question gold is the lifeboats" -…
"First it was the Dutch Gilder then the British pound and now the world is asking if the US dollar is next." - Dr. Joeri Schasfoort [00:00:00]
"The crux of it is that money had essentially gotten too easy. This encouraged over borrowing by both the provincial governments and the East India Company." - Dr. Joeri Schasfoort…
"If governments wanted to go to gold they already could... the only thing that matters is the capital stack of fiat." - Brent Johnson [00:18:15]
"Gold is the natural historical hedge against... credit excess that may be used to finance wars that are destructive of the capital stock." - John Butler…
"The dollar appears to me to have to be in a long-term bear market and it has a lot to do with overinvestment by foreigners in the United States." - Jeffrey Gundlach (Discussing the macroeconomic shift against US assets) [00:03:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncp9-4nGFWQ&t=0h3m27s)
"They're more comfortable being wrong with a lot of company than being wrong alone." - Jeffrey Gundlach (Critiquing the herd…
US M2 money supply jumped +4.3% YoY, or $1 trillion in January 2026, to a record $22.44 trillion. This marks the 22nd consecutive monthly increase.
World reserve currency
#Dollar
'On the second question — on whether the dollar will weaken further — who knows. As the old joke goes, God invented FX strategists to make economists seem accurate.'
"FT: About 54 per cent of all export invoices are still denominated in dollars. In finance the greenback’s reign is even more supreme. Roughly 60 per cent of all international loans and deposits are in dollars, and **70 per cent of…
Bloomberg : The **greenback’s **portion of international transactions rose to 50.5% in December, up from 46.8% a month earlier, according to the latest data compiled by global financial messaging service Swift, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. That’s the highest share since 2023 when the Belgium-headquartered consortium revised how it collects the transaction data.
…
BofA Hartnett: Gold & EM stocks = the big outperformers in US$ bear markets...The five big US$ bear markets since 1967 - Mike Zaccardi
Gold has overtaken the U.S. Dollar as the largest Global Reserve Asset
