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"If you're lending to a sovereign however there really isn't a bankruptcy code which already disadvantages creditors in terms of the workout solutions if things go really wrong." - Lupin Rahman [00:02:03]
"Often aspects of whether a sovereign is able to repay is beyond their control... It's not just about the basic credit risk, basic FX risk, basic volatility risk, or…
Private credit AUM for some of the largest players. It's grown ~4x in the last 7 years. #Gain
Apollo: Ten trillion dollars in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months, see chart.
The budget deficit this year is about $2 trillion.
Total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers.
"In the 70s and 80s if you invested in corporate debt you were buying investment grade bonds. Everything else was considered uninvestable. It was called junk in fact." - Armen Panossian [00:01:35]
"Mistakes cause mispricings. In other words, emotion and misinformation create these mispricings. We're looking for these moments of misunderstanding to…
"You can't hit the global economy with a shock of that magnitude and not expect bad things to happen." - Jeff Currie [00:01:13]
"The 2-year note yield has now poked its head above the Fed funds rate, which is telling you the markets think that interest rates are going to go up." - Michael McKee…
"CoreWeave's debt-fueled growth highlights a broader trend in the Al infrastructure boom, where heavy leverage, hardware-collateralized lending, and risky financing structures create systemic vulnerabilities." - GQG Research (Opening Takeaways) [Page 1]
"Debt issuance for data centers surged to $183B in 2025, up from $92B the previous year... aggressively loading up the ecosystem with debt." -…
"The tail risk in credit is fat. This is a fat-tailed risk now. It's no longer a normal-tailed risk and something like software, how big a problem it is, I don't think we even quite know yet." - Victor Khosla (Discussing worst-case default scenarios) 00:03:03
"If private equity firms have bought software businesses at 20 plus times cash flow relying on…
Disruption Creates Opportunities for Investors | Apollo | Feb 21, 2026
"Training and running frontier AI models requires capital on a scale rarely seen in the private sector. Hyperscaler capex has already tripled since 2023, and forecasts now point to more than $2.7 trillion of cumulative AI-related spending from 2025 to 2029.
What began as a largely self-funded capex cycle is quickly becoming a financing event. In the final three months of 2025 alone, Oracle, Meta, Google and…
Source: Wei Li (Blackrock) | Link
As more hyperscalers tap the bond market - including international capital and very long dated - to finance capex, some context helps:
Competition for capital has…
"00:00:39 We want to be long hard assets... and we want to be short soft assets, companies that have only intangibles... and instruments that are opaque and illiquid." — Alberto Gallo (Defining the core investment thesis)
"00:04:03 *It’s easier to lend money to consumers than to give them education and…
Ultimately, history shows the solution might be a more permanent devaluation. > The Roman Empire serves is the archetypal example of what lies ahead. By the late second century, Rome faced rising military costs to defend its vast borders, while the tax base stagnated. Rather than cutting spending, Emperors began shaving coins or diluting the purity of the denarius. Under Augustus, the coin was nearly…
. . . 25—35% of private credit portfolios face elevated AI disruption risk. Using BDC portfolios as a proxy (AUM of ~$450bn, $350bn of which is public), exposure to high disruption risk subsectors is most acute in technology (~24% of BDC holdings) and business services (~30% of BDC holdings), including legacy SaaS firms with seatbased pricing models, back office application firms, staffing…
"I've got a chart for you here that shows what happened back in 2019 and anybody who was on a money market desk then remembers it. We had a massive spike in money market rates... when the Fed reducing its balance sheet got too far down and there weren't enough reserves to go around." — Mike McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent…
Executive Summary
This Bloomberg TV segment features Oxana Aronov (JP Morgan Asset Management) and Jeff Sherman (DoubleLine Capital) discussing the complex dynamics of the current interest rate environment. The core thesis is that traditional fixed income is struggling to serve as a reliable hedge outside of a deep recession due to persistent fiscal policy concerns, **inflation…
Corrected Yield Curve Quotes
"Treasuries resumed their role as a traditional haven, helped by the latest Challenger data and jobless claims showing weakness in the labor market. The 2s10s curve steepened to the widest in more than four years." — Narrator (Scarlett Fu) [00:02:56]
"The 2s10s steepener is probably the easiest money…
Demystifying the Repo Market | A deep dive into the "base layer" of repo | Primers | #Fed #MoneyMarkets #Repo
"The JGB 10-year, 20-year-forward rate tells a compelling story: A 373-basis-point climb since 2021 marks a structural shift in Japan’s bond market."
"Long-term buyers – insurers and pensions – have stepped back from their role as steady buyers in the super-long sector. In their place, short-term traders dominate, turning 30-year JGBs into tactical plays. The result? Heightened volatility, amplified by global…
"U.S. Treasuries long carried a “convenience yield” – a premium investors paid for the liquidity and safety of dollar assets compared with other high quality sovereign bonds."
"Over the past decade, that gap has evaporated, shrinking from nearly 80 bps to roughly 0 when adjusting German bund and Japanese government bond yields hedged back into dollars using maturity-matched cross currency…
#Dollar #Bonds #Instability #Geo-Economics