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Deep-DivesGlobalCurated insights across markets, macros, history, and intelligenceShowing 21 of 21
Distilling high-signal intelligence into digestible insights.
Deep-DivesGlobalShowing 21 of 21
*Private credit AUM for some of the largest players. It's grown ~4x in the last 7 years. #Gain*
Apollo: **Ten trillion dollars** in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months, see chart. The budget **deficit** this year is about **$2 trillion**. Total gross **corporate bond** issuance in 2026 is likely to be around **$2 trillion** because of increased supply from **hyperscalers**.
Private credit AUM for some of the largest players. It's grown ~4x in the last 7 years. #Gain
Apollo: Ten trillion dollars in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months, see chart.
The budget deficit this year is about $2 trillion.
Total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers.
"The tail risk in credit is fat. This is a fat-tailed risk now. It's no longer a normal-tailed risk and something like software, how big a problem it is, I don't think we even quite know yet." - Victor Khosla (Discussing worst-case default scenarios) 00:03:03
"If private equity firms have bought software businesses at 20 plus times cash flow relying on…
Disruption Creates Opportunities for Investors | Apollo | Feb 21, 2026
"00:00:39 We want to be long hard assets... and we want to be short soft assets, companies that have only intangibles... and instruments that are opaque and illiquid." — Alberto Gallo (Defining the core investment thesis)
"00:04:03 *It’s easier to lend money to consumers than to give them education and…
"I've got a chart for you here that shows what happened back in 2019 and anybody who was on a money market desk then remembers it. We had a massive spike in money market rates... when the Fed reducing its balance sheet got too far down and there weren't enough reserves to go around." — Mike McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent…
Executive Summary
This Bloomberg TV segment features Oxana Aronov (JP Morgan Asset Management) and Jeff Sherman (DoubleLine Capital) discussing the complex dynamics of the current interest rate environment. The core thesis is that traditional fixed income is struggling to serve as a reliable hedge outside of a deep recession due to persistent fiscal policy concerns, **inflation…
Corrected Yield Curve Quotes
"Treasuries resumed their role as a traditional haven, helped by the latest Challenger data and jobless claims showing weakness in the labor market. The 2s10s curve steepened to the widest in more than four years." — Narrator (Scarlett Fu) [00:02:56]
"The 2s10s steepener is probably the easiest money…
Demystifying the Repo Market | A deep dive into the "base layer" of repo | Primers | #Fed #MoneyMarkets #Repo
"The JGB 10-year, 20-year-forward rate tells a compelling story: A 373-basis-point climb since 2021 marks a structural shift in Japan’s bond market."
"Long-term buyers – insurers and pensions – have stepped back from their role as steady buyers in the super-long sector. In their place, short-term traders dominate, turning 30-year JGBs into tactical plays. The result? Heightened volatility, amplified by global…
#JPY #Yields
Fed: Run it hot :P - 🔗@calvinfroedge
The old bond market adage is that 'yields will keep rising until something breaks".
In 2022/23, rising U.S. yields "broke" several banks by March 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank). Japanese yields are now at a 27-year high and going vertical. When does something "break" in Japan?
Source - Jim Bianco
This podcast, hosted by Harry Whitelaw, features Nael Khatoun (European Private Debt), Madelaine Jones (European High Yield Bonds & Senior Loans), and Suzana Perić (Sourcing & Origination). The discussion explores the European economic landscape and credit market outlook. 0:16.
**1. State of the European Economy…
Corporate bond spreads hit lowest since 2007 - 103bp | Priced for Perfection?
Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and Chief Economist, and Dominic Wilson, Senior Adviser in the Global Markets Research Group discuss their "Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices" 2026 macro outlook report, forecasting global GDP growth of 2.8%, notably above the 2.5% consensus estimate [0:14]. Episode recorded on January 8th, 2026…
Doubleline | U.S Private Credit Market Size @ ~US$1.2 Trn
Signifying loss of market confidence? #Yen #Japan
BoJ’s Policy Dilemma | The Bank of Japan is caught in a "pincer movement":
- If they keep rates low: The Yen will continue to crash against the US Dollar (currently near 160), destroying the purchasing power of Japanese households. - If they raise rates to save the Yen: They risk crashing the stock market, hurting domestic borrowers, and making…
Global debt remains above 235% of world GDP, with private sector lending declining and public borrowing rising.
