Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and Chief Economist, and Dominic Wilson, Senior Adviser in the Global Markets Research Group discuss their "Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices" 2026 macro outlook report, forecasting global GDP growth of 2.8%, notably above the 2.5% consensus estimate [0:14]. Episode recorded on January 8th, 2026
Detailed Macro Breakout
Optimistic Growth Forecast [0:49] Goldman Sachs Research projects the US economy to grow by 2.6% on a full-year basis (and 2.5% Q4-over-Q4), outperforming the 2.0%-2.1% consensus [2:41]. Key drivers include:
- Fading Tariff Headwinds: The 11 percentage point tariff increase from 2025 (which subtracted 0.6pp from growth) is now in the "rearview mirror" [1:39].
- Fiscal Stimulus: US consumers are expected to receive an extra $100 billion in tax refunds (roughly of annual disposable income) from the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" .
References
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