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GeopoliticsGlobal power, conflict, and policy intelligenceShowing 18 of 18
Global power, conflict, and policy — the stories reshaping the world order.
GeopoliticsShowing 18 of 18
*AI Summary* **Core thesis** - This is **not just an oil-price spike**. The note argues the Middle East war has triggered a **broad global energy shock** that is spilling into oil, gas, shipping fuels, petrochemicals, fertilizers, water security, equities, and even military supply chains.
> "The person who settles disputes is in charge. Not the person who starts them, not the person who wins them—the person who stops them." - **Tucker Carlson** [[00:10:19](https://youtu.be/1cbw1utqzHg?si=XmJqluyxfCqmaHPO&t=10m19s)] > "If we get deeply involved and deeply entangled with Iran, we are playing right into China's hands... China will simply just watch us bleed out economically as we bleed out on the…
AI Summary
Core thesis
"The person who settles disputes is in charge. Not the person who starts them, not the person who wins them—the person who stops them." - Tucker Carlson [00:10:19]
"If we get deeply involved and deeply entangled with Iran, we are playing right into China's hands... China will simply just watch us bleed out economically as we bleed out on the…
"Why did Iran actually decide to go after countries that did not attack them? It relates to Iran's broader strategy... They want to restore deterrence and their way of doing that is indicating to everyone... that attacking us is not worth it." - Greg Brew [00:00:00]
"The bigger scenario that the Iranians are more concerned about is a scenario where…
"there's nothing older than having a fight over a choke point like the straight of Hormuz..." - Niall Ferguson [00:03:33]
"if the Russians can build get this four million Shahid type drones in a year... who knows how this can develop nobody paid any attention" - Niall Ferguson…
"Iran has stated that its purpose its goal its strategy is to move oil to $200 a barrel which will have a really significant impact on the global economy because the entire global economy is based on access to cheap energy." - Professor [00:01:41]
"Remember that America is sitting on $39 trillion in debt and so the American economy is a Ponzi scheme that relies on…
Saudi Arabia is pumping crude through its East-West Pipeline from its fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The kingdom typically exports around 6 million barrels per day (bpd) through Hormuz. The pipeline can take up to 5 million bpd, but Yanbu has rarely loaded more than 2.5 million bpd.
The United Arab Emirates also has a pipeline that can transport some crude to bypass the strait.…
To put current events in context, the following illustrates Iran's rise from a US-backed state into an Islamic Republic | Iran: Its politics, economy, and impact (March 2026) #DBResearch #Report
"Trump has failed to articulate a purpose and a strategy for this war." - Jiang Xueqin (On the lack of clear U.S. objectives) 00:00:42
"The Iranians are fighting a war of attrition, unfortunately, the Americans are fighting a war of destruction." - Jiang Xueqin (Contrasting the strategic approaches of the two powers)…
Share of Global Seaborne Energy Shipments | Through Strait of Hormuz in 2025
Source: Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom | Guest: Prof. John Mearsheimer Date of Analysis: March 3, 2026 Context: The report covers the onset of the full-scale US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that commenced on Saturday, February 28, 2026.
1. The Strategic Paradox: Defining "Winning" Professor Mearsheimer argues that the US and Israel have entered a conflict with fundamentally…
Torsten Slok (Apollo) : The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil trade, making any disruption an immediate risk to energy prices and macro outcomes. Chart book, available here, examines energy demand and supply, as well as the significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
"The GCC is a very important trading partner for India... $178 billion worth of trade last year. We have 10 million people in the region; their remittances are one-third of the total remittances that India gets." - Guest (Ambassador) (Context: Outlining the sheer scale of Indian economic exposure in the Gulf) [00:00:08]
"I have no doubt India will…
US Forces in the Middle East #Bloomberg
Iran x Nuclear Weapons
Graphic from the @kpler team (h/t 'Super Flo' aka Florian Grünberger) depicting the share of global seaborne commodity flows transiting the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 (imports + exports).
"virtually every country in the world except Israel does not want us to attack... only one country on the planet, Israel, is pushing for this." - John Mearsheimer (Discussing global opposition to a US-Iran war) [00:01:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx1KnspP1gM&t=0h1m30s)
"he said that what he needs to hear from them and he has not heard from them are what he called... 'secret words'... 'we will never…
Strait of Hormuz: 13mpbd, ~31% of Global Seaborne Oil Trade. Also a key route for LNG, ~20% of global LNG shipments passing through it, mostly from Qatar.
#China #Oil #HormuzStrait #CSIS
