"Trump has failed to articulate a purpose and a strategy for this war." - Jiang Xueqin (On the lack of clear U.S. objectives) 00:00:42
"The Iranians are fighting a war of attrition, unfortunately, the Americans are fighting a war of destruction." - Jiang Xueqin (Contrasting the strategic approaches of the two powers) 00:06:39
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"The empire would rather destroy the world than surrender its power." - Jiang Xueqin (Explaining the U.S. reluctance to peacefully exit the Middle East) 00:14:07
"When empires decline, they lash out against the world, they start these stupid wars they can't possibly win." - Jiang Xueqin (On the historical macro-patterns of dying empires) 00:17:10
"The real wealth of Israel is a Jewish diaspora spread all around the world... they are extremely well educated, their dollars are really savvy." - Jiang Xueqin (On Israel's long-term resilience and capital resources) 00:38:43
"Europe is a dumpster fire." - Jiang Xueqin (Summarizing the compounding demographic, economic, and political crises on the continent) 00:44:04
"Pax Americana is dead and Pax Judeica is not interested in protecting you from big bad bullies." - Jiang Xueqin (On why global remilitarization is now inevitable) 00:47:43
"Of all the world leaders, Vladimir Putin is the only one with a grand strategy... he plays chess." - Jiang Xueqin (On Russia's patience in waiting for U.S. overextension) 00:52:43
2. Executive Summary
The video features a deep-dive geopolitical forecast analyzing an ongoing U.S.-led war against Iran, framing the conflict as the erratic, violent death throes of a declining American empire.
Professor Jiang Xueqin argues that the U.S. lacks the manufacturing base, political will, and coherent strategy to win, while Iran is successfully waging a war of attrition designed to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, collapse the Gulf States (GCC), and destroy the petrodollar.
The discussion maps out a radical new world order characterized by the complete economic ruin of Europe, the emergence of a dominant "Greater Israel" (Pax Judeica), and a global pivot away from liberal hegemony toward de-industrialization, mercantilism, and rapid remilitarization.
Ultimately, the conflict will act as a catalyst for other adversaries—namely Russia in Ukraine and North Korea in East Asia—to capitalize on American overextension, decisively ending the post-Cold War era.
3. Chronological Table of Contents
00:00:00 - Introduction and the Failure of U.S. Narrative in the Iran War
00:05:46 - War of Attrition vs. War of Destruction
00:09:05 - The Vulnerability and Imminent Collapse of the Gulf States (GCC)
00:13:24 - The Petrodollar, AI Bubbles, and U.S. Economic Fragility
00:16:46 - Symptoms of American Imperial Decline and Micro-Militarism
00:20:58 - U.S. Military Weaknesses vs. Iranian Resilience and Martyrdom Culture
00:26:19 - Regional Escalation: Israel's Project and False Flags
00:29:33 - Potential Expansion: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea
00:33:15 - The Post-War Middle East and the Rise of "Pax Judeica"
00:40:51 - Europe's Hopeless Economic and Demographic Crises
00:46:02 - The New World Order: De-industrialization, Mercantilism, and Remilitarization
00:50:48 - Russia's Grand Strategy and the Battle for Odessa
00:55:06 - Conclusion: The Illusion of Escalation Control
4. Key Takeaways
The GCC is a Mirage: States like the UAE and Saudi Arabia rely entirely on external security, imported food, and vulnerable desalination plants. Iran's strategy targets this fragility, leading to rapid capital flight and societal collapse in the Gulf.
The Petrodollar Flywheel is Breaking: Iran's ultimate goal is closing the Strait of Hormuz to stop the flow of petrodollars. Because the U.S. relies on the Gulf recycling these dollars into American tech/AI markets, breaking this chain threatens a depression worse than the 1930s.
U.S. Deficits in Modern Warfare: America lacks the deep manufacturing capacity required for sustained warfare, relies on cannibalizing munitions from other regions, and possesses zero political tolerance for mass casualties.
Europe is Defunct: Cut off from cheap Russian gas and now Middle Eastern LNG, burdened by an aging population and unassimilated refugees, Europe is facing forced, painful de-industrialization and irrelevance on the global stage.
A New Triad for National Survival: In the post-American order, nations must urgently adapt to three realities: planned de-industrialization (to achieve self-sufficiency), mercantilism (regionalized trade networks), and remilitarization.
Russia is Waiting for the Quagmire: Putin's slow war in Ukraine is highly calculated; he is waiting for the U.S. to commit ground troops to Iran. Once America is bogged down in a 5-10 year Middle Eastern quagmire, Russia will comfortably move to take Odessa.
5. Detailed Summary by Topic
Introduction and the Failure of U.S. Narrative in the Iran War00:00:00
The U.S. administration has struggled to articulate a clear objective for military action against Iran.
The initial justification of preventing uranium enrichment was undermined when Oman confirmed Iran had already agreed to zero civilian enrichment 00:01:22.
The narrative shifted erratically to preempting an Israeli attack 00:02:00, exposing terrible strategic planning.
Economic Fallout: Iran retaliated by bombarding U.S. bases and closing the Strait of Hormuz, immediately sending oil prices skyrocketing and threatening Asian manufacturing economies 00:02:42.
Iran's Strategy: Fighting a war of attrition. By pressuring the global economy and the GCC nations, Iran hopes these parties will force the U.S. to end the conflict 00:06:06.
U.S. Strategy: Fighting a war of destruction. The U.S. is targeting civilian infrastructure, including desalination plants and civilian oil facilities, causing massive environmental and humanitarian crises (e.g., acid rain in Tehran, a school bombing killing 170 girls) 00:06:45.
The Vulnerability and Imminent Collapse of the Gulf States (GCC)00:09:05
The GCC states are described as "mirages" built in the desert, artificially propped up by Pax Americana00:09:45.
Cities like Dubai rely on an illusion of safety to attract global wealth. This illusion is shattered by the war, causing millionaires to flee to places like Singapore 00:11:11.
Critical Weaknesses: The GCC imports 80-90% of its food and relies heavily on vulnerable desalination plants for fresh water. If Iran targets these, the GCC cannot survive 00:11:38.
The Petrodollar, AI Bubbles, and U.S. Economic Fragility00:13:24
Iran's endgame is to kick the U.S. out of the Middle East and control the Strait of Hormuz 00:13:32.
The U.S. refuses to leave because its economy is sustained by a "Ponzi scheme" relying on the Petrodollar. Gulf States sell oil, get dollars, and recycle them into U.S. debt and the current AI tech bubble 00:14:43.
If this capital flow stops, America faces a depression worse than the 1930s.
Symptoms of American Imperial Decline and Micro-Militarism00:16:46
Professor Jiang lists symptoms of American imperial decline: family collapse, currency debasement, extreme political polarization, and a depressed youth demographic 00:17:22.
To project strength, the U.S. engages in erratic "micro-militarism" globally, such as embargoing Cuba and threatening Venezuela and Mexico 00:18:44.
U.S. Military Weaknesses vs. Iranian Resilience and Martyrdom Culture00:20:58
U.S. Disadvantages: Lack of political will (most Americans oppose the war), lack of manufacturing capacity (cannibalizing munitions from South Korea), and zero tolerance for casualties 00:21:07.
Iranian Advantages: A deeply embedded Shia martyrdom culture where dying for the cause is considered an honor. They have robust domestic manufacturing (producing 500 drones a day) 00:22:59.
Regional Escalation: Israel's Project and False Flags00:26:19
Israel wants to spread the war to create a regional conflagration, dragging in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and others, using false flag operations to achieve this 00:27:19.
Potential Expansion: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea00:29:33
Should Saudi Arabia enter the war, Pakistan is obligated by a mutual defense pact to join, bringing a nuclear power into the conflict 00:30:06.
North Korea will likely use the distraction and lack of energy in East Asia to aggressively extort South Korea and Japan 00:31:57.
The Post-War Middle East and the Rise of "Pax Judeica"00:33:15
Post-conflict, the GCC will likely be destroyed. Israel will emerge as the dominant regional power, realizing the "Greater Israel" project 00:34:36.
Israel plans to shift the center of global gravity to Jerusalem, utilizing the Ben Gurion Canal to replace the Suez, and drawing on immense wealth from the Jewish diaspora 00:35:19.
However, the war will traumatize Israeli society, likely pushing it from a democracy to a theocracy dominated by religious zealots 00:38:10.
Europe's Hopeless Economic and Demographic Crises00:40:51
Europe is described as a "dumpster fire." They absorbed millions of refugees they couldn't assimilate and lost their economic model 00:44:04.
The German economic engine—built on cheap Russian energy, cheap Eastern European labor, and the Chinese export market—has completely collapsed 00:42:42.
The New World Order: De-industrialization, Mercantilism, and Remilitarization00:46:02
The post-Cold War liberal hegemony is dead. Nations must adapt to three new realities:
De-industrialization: Shifting away from heavy energy reliance toward self-sufficiency 00:46:44.
Mercantilism: Creating localized supply networks and spheres of influence 00:47:21.
Remilitarization: Rearming to survive in a world without a benign global hegemon 00:47:43.
Japan is predicted to be the first to successfully adapt to this model in East Asia 00:48:05.
Russia's Grand Strategy and the Battle for Odessa00:50:48
Putin is praised for having a patient grand strategy. He is intentionally fighting a slow war of attrition in Ukraine 00:52:43.
Russia is waiting for the U.S. to commit ground troops to Iran. Once America is trapped in a 5-10 year quagmire, Russia will launch a massive siege on Odessa 00:53:04.
This will exhaust the Europeans, ultimately leading to popular revolts against European governments that are sacrificing their citizens for a lost cause 00:54:34.
Conclusion: The Illusion of Escalation Control00:55:06
Both speakers agree the ultimate tragedy is Western hubris—specifically the illusion that empires can strictly control the variables, escalation ladder, and outcome of massive military conflicts.
6. Data & Figures
Data Point
Value
Context
Timestamp
Oil Price
$110 - $120 / barrel
Price spike immediately following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Prime Minister of Japan's Warning 00:03:09: Prime Minister Takayachi reportedly informed the cabinet that Japan will completely run out of oil in 7-8 months due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, illustrating the immediate global ripple effect of the conflict.
The Ayatollah's Martyrdom 00:24:26: When strikes began, rather than fleeing to a bunker in Moscow, the 86-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei reportedly went to his office to carry on with life, accepting his assassination. This act galvanized the Iranian public's resolve to fight.
The False Flag Drone Strike on Aramco 00:27:49: Early reports blamed Iran for a drone strike on a Saudi Aramco facility. However, intelligence (reportedly discussed by Tucker Carlson) suggested the drone came from the west (Lebanon/Israel), and Qatar arrested Mossad agents, highlighting Israel's alleged attempts to instigate a broader regional war.
Concept: When global empires realize they are in terminal decline, they do not accept multipolarity gracefully. Instead, they experience "hubris" and lash out with erratic micro-militarism, starting unwinnable wars to distract domestic populations and project a mirage of strength.
Concept: The U.S. economy is sustained by a loop: The U.S. provides security to the GCC -> The GCC sells oil in USD -> The GCC reinvests those dollars into U.S. debt and tech markets (AI/Data centers). If the Strait of Hormuz closes, the flywheel stops, collapsing the U.S. economy.
Concept: A framework for national survival post-Pax Americana. Nations must embrace 1. De-industrialization (accepting a lower energy footprint to gain self-sufficiency), 2. Mercantilism (building localized, secure trade blocs rather than relying on global free trade), and 3. Remilitarization (building robust defense capabilities as global security guarantees vanish).
9. References & Recommendations
People:
Emanuel Todd (French Scholar) - Referenced by Glenn Diesen for predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union and, in the early 2000s, predicting the collapse of the U.S. empire through the concept of "micro-militarism."
Tucker Carlson - Mentioned for reporting on Qatari intelligence regarding Mossad agents attempting false flags.
Geopolitical Concepts:
Pax Americana: The dying order of U.S. global security guarantees.
Pax Judeica: The proposed future order centered around Jerusalem, AI surveillance, and Israeli technological/financial dominance.
War of Gog and Magog: Mentioned as the eschatological long-term future conflict where the world unites against Israel.
10. Speakers & Credentials
Glenn Diesen (Host): Professor, academic, and geopolitical analyst known for discussing Russian foreign policy, Eurasian integration, and the decline of Western hegemony.
Professor Jiang Xueqin (Guest): Scholar and analyst who utilizes historical macro-patterns and game theory to forecast geopolitical shifts, notably predicting the return of Trump and the U.S. war with Iran.
Jul 13, 2026
Yanis Varoufakis | Closing Keynote | Thursday 18th June 2026 | Web3 Foundation
"Politics is who does what to whom... who has the power to do to make you do stuff." Yanis Varoufakis 00:02:36 https://youtu.be/WZeuKyUs9hM?t=2m36s "We have created machines and machinery—network machines—that are not produced means of pro…
Civilian Casualties
170
Number of Iranian schoolgirls reportedly killed by a U.S. Tomahawk missile.