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GeopoliticsGlobal power, conflict, and policy intelligenceShowing 22 of 22
Global power, conflict, and policy — the stories reshaping the world order.
GeopoliticsShowing 22 of 22
*The Energy Situation, Explained for Tech People | a16z*
*AI Summary* **Core thesis** - This is **not just an oil-price spike**. The note argues the Middle East war has triggered a **broad global energy shock** that is spilling into oil, gas, shipping fuels, petrochemicals, fertilizers, water security, equities, and even military supply chains.
The Energy Situation, Explained for Tech People | a16z
AI Summary
Core thesis
Excerpt from the article.
The ongoing crisis can be viewed in two main ways: - Iran and its nuclear program as the central focus of the conflict. In this narrow lens, the war revolves primarily around containing or neutralizing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If that’s the case, any impact is short-lived. Regardless, the US will benefit, even in the long term, from the closure of the Hormuz strait - *Iran as…
"Why did Iran actually decide to go after countries that did not attack them? It relates to Iran's broader strategy... They want to restore deterrence and their way of doing that is indicating to everyone... that attacking us is not worth it." - Greg Brew [00:00:00]
"The bigger scenario that the Iranians are more concerned about is a scenario where…
"We've calculated about 15 million barrels per day of oil crude plus products LPG stranded... the amount of volume we're talking about on the supply loss for the Middle East is very similar to the amount of demand loss [during COVID]." - Host [00:00:32]
"The straight can't stay closed for a month because the world economy will not survive, but that…
"We need to electrify and in fact power demand has to accelerate for us to be energy self-sufficient we don't have oil we don't have gas what we have is coal right and lots of sunshine right" - Nikhil Nigania [00:03:57]
"Our transmission network is better than US which many people find surprising but it is still lagging renewable capacity…
"we've already seen around 8 and a half million barrels a day of production shut in on those producers already that's not... what's exports have been lost that's actual shut in the ground" - Rory Johnston [00:10:03]
"if you turn them off everything kind of solidifies in the pipes and like that's not great so you want to be able to get these things…
Following the military campaign by the U.S. and Israel resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, global energy markets are facing heightened volatility. This summary outlines the strategic implications for supply, pricing, and the broader economy.
Immediate Disruptions & Infrastructure Impact The conflict has moved beyond regional tension into a "tail risk" scenario involving…
"Price is Right": oil is the best performing asset in 2026 on US Iran, and geopolitical shocks. Following geopolitical shocks in past 90 years oil is the best performer over 3 months (up 18%), then gold (6%) US stocks (4%); but 6 months after geopolitical shocks gold keeps outperforming (up 19%), stocks stall, while oil reverses all gains. Or "Rock the Geopolitics = trade oil, own gold."
//A perspective on US Shale
In 1643, Evangelista Torricelli used a tube of mercury to first measure pressure. In 1897, German mechanical engineer Rudolf Diesel invented the diesel engine with financial help from the Krupp family, financiers of the Third Reich. Four thousand years ago, the Egyptians invented the pump. > > Collectively, the above are the **bedrock of…
China added more power capacity in 4 years than the US has in total. - Arnaud Bertrand
#China #Energy
China is by far the leader in solar, with 834 TWh as of 2024, compared to the US at 303 TWh.
#Crude #Geopolitics
Increasing barrels of Oil on water #Bloomberg
BBG: IEA estimates a Supply will outpace demand by ~4mbpd in 2026
Bloomberg: Fiscal Breakeven Price of Oil Producers vs Average expected price in 2026
China's Strategic Energy Metrics via Strait of Malacca (2026 Projection)
As of January 2026, the Strait of Malacca remains the primary artery for China’s energy security. While total volume through the Strait is higher, the figures below represent the specific portion destined for or controlled by China.
(Source: Google Gemini) | Metric | China's Specific Volume | % of China's Total Imports | | :--- | :--- |…
CHART OF THE DAY: As the debate starts about whether — and if so, how — Europe should respond to US taffifs on Greenland, let's take a look at the energy situation. The EU swapped Russian for American depdency: today, US accounts for ~16% of oil and ~45% of its LNG of imports. The data above is for 2024 (and does not cover UK). The data for 2025 is only available to 3Q, but shows a similar trend. - [Javier…
