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GeopoliticsGlobal power, conflict, and policy intelligenceShowing 24 of 46
Global power, conflict, and policy — the stories reshaping the world order.
GeopoliticsShowing 24 of 46
*Tindale’s Trap: When Reserve Advantage Erodes Productive Capacity | [Craig Tindale](https://x.com/ctindale)*
> "what makes helium demand so durable in some of these applications is that you're using more than one of the unique uh you know attributes of the molecule" - **Nick Snyder** [[00:09:04](https://youtu.be/bjc6MgUY0BE?t=00h09m04s)] "unlike any other critical mineral once you use it leaves the atmosphere So you can't go get it out of a landfill" - **Nick Snyder** [[00:10:47](https://youtu.be/bjc6MgUY0BE?t=00h10m47s)]…
Tindale’s Trap: When Reserve Advantage Erodes Productive Capacity | Craig Tindale
"what makes helium demand so durable in some of these applications is that you're using more than one of the unique uh you know attributes of the molecule" - Nick Snyder [00:09:04] "unlike any other critical mineral once you use it leaves the atmosphere So you can't go get it out of a landfill" - Nick Snyder [00:10:47]…
AI Summary
Core thesis
"China produces 200 million televisions and 1.5 billion smartphones per year. Producing the TV sets guarantees offtake of 25 to 30 metals, while the phones require close to 60 metals. Televisions require the same critical minerals for which many governments are trying to develop alternative suppliers, but there are far fewer potential buyers outside of defense-related supply chains because commercial demand for…
The country’s dominant position in metals supply chains is not only in electrified metals and rare earths but also in other minor metals like scandium, tungsten, and antimony which are integral to advanced technologies in aerospace and semiconductor supply chains. While a part of China’s dominant position in supply chains comes from natural endowments, the network effects associated with the…
China's rapid expansion of electricity and concentration of upstream materials production has created a strong pro-cyclical environment that is difficult to compete with and almost impossible to replicate. - Rogan Quinn
Source: Report **Executive…
"Why did Iran actually decide to go after countries that did not attack them? It relates to Iran's broader strategy... They want to restore deterrence and their way of doing that is indicating to everyone... that attacking us is not worth it." - Greg Brew [00:00:00]
"The bigger scenario that the Iranians are more concerned about is a scenario where…
The Petrochemical Products Flow Chart
Saudi Arabia is pumping crude through its East-West Pipeline from its fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The kingdom typically exports around 6 million barrels per day (bpd) through Hormuz. The pipeline can take up to 5 million bpd, but Yanbu has rarely loaded more than 2.5 million bpd.
The United Arab Emirates also has a pipeline that can transport some crude to bypass the strait.…
S&P: Qatar is the world's second-largest exporter of LNG, behind only the US. It shipped some 82.4mn metric tons in 2025, representing just under 20% of global exports..
"We've calculated about 15 million barrels per day of oil crude plus products LPG stranded... the amount of volume we're talking about on the supply loss for the Middle East is very similar to the amount of demand loss [during COVID]." - Host [00:00:32]
"The straight can't stay closed for a month because the world economy will not survive, but that…
"We need to electrify and in fact power demand has to accelerate for us to be energy self-sufficient we don't have oil we don't have gas what we have is coal right and lots of sunshine right" - Nikhil Nigania [00:03:57]
"Our transmission network is better than US which many people find surprising but it is still lagging renewable capacity…
"we've already seen around 8 and a half million barrels a day of production shut in on those producers already that's not... what's exports have been lost that's actual shut in the ground" - Rory Johnston [00:10:03]
"if you turn them off everything kind of solidifies in the pipes and like that's not great so you want to be able to get these things…
Deutsche Bank Research Institute series dives into the physical foundations of modern power: critical minerals – authored by Marion Laboure, Ph.D. and Camilla Siazon. Chapter 2 in a nutshell: - Critical minerals have shifted from industrial inputs to strategic…
"Markets won't work this out because market forces the way that we understand them are not at play... you're dealing with another side which is prepared to produce everything at a loss in perpetuity in order to achieve that control." - Michael Every [00:00:12]
"Economic statecraft really begins with making you ask that simple question of what do you…
Share of Global Seaborne Energy Shipments | Through Strait of Hormuz in 2025
Following the military campaign by the U.S. and Israel resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, global energy markets are facing heightened volatility. This summary outlines the strategic implications for supply, pricing, and the broader economy.
Immediate Disruptions & Infrastructure Impact The conflict has moved beyond regional tension into a "tail risk" scenario involving…
Torsten Slok (Apollo) : The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil trade, making any disruption an immediate risk to energy prices and macro outcomes. Chart book, available here, examines energy demand and supply, as well as the significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
Graphic from the @kpler team (h/t 'Super Flo' aka Florian Grünberger) depicting the share of global seaborne commodity flows transiting the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 (imports + exports).
The results indicate that **positive oil price moves and data surprises significantly lift yields, higher policy uncertainty lowers them, and geopolitical shocks have no direct…
ETF Inflows in India: Gold = Equity | Feb 23, 2026 | Apollo Global
"The egos and realpolitik of an American president, a Russian dictator and a Saudi crown prince have proved more important than any econometric model or Wall Street bank forecast."
"Is this the subliminal message behind the 30 percent rise in gold and the surreal 65 percent increase in silver in January? Which…
"Price is Right": oil is the best performing asset in 2026 on US Iran, and geopolitical shocks. Following geopolitical shocks in past 90 years oil is the best performer over 3 months (up 18%), then gold (6%) US stocks (4%); but 6 months after geopolitical shocks gold keeps outperforming (up 19%), stocks stall, while oil reverses all gains. Or "Rock the Geopolitics = trade oil, own gold."
"The central analytical move in The Sovereignty Spread in Copper is the reclassification of refined copper from a traded commodity into a system input whose price is subordinate to industrial throughput and state objectives." - Craig Tindale (Explaining the core thesis of the report)
"**In the Chinese system, refined copper is treated as a non-substitutable industrial utility, comparable to electricity…
