Note: S&P Al is a representative basket of companies with exposure to artificial intelligence technologies and includes 84 companies. These include firms involved in the development and enablement of Al across areas such as semiconductors, software, internet platforms and IT infrastructure. The basket is applied consistently across the full sample period. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

Apollo: Since…

HSBC: A key theme of our Mid-Year Outlook is that the global economy is currently being shaped by what we call “two shocks and a boom”. These forces are creating a difficult environment for central banks and have, so far, driven a hawkish pivot. But what does this all mean for markets?

These forces are creating a difficult environment for central banks and have, so far, driven a hawkish pivot. The ECB's rate…

Executive Summary

• The global macro landscape is stuck between two opposing forces: the lingering inflationary shock of the February oil spike (caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) and a sudden weekend breakthrough in US-Iran diplomacy that could undo that very shock.

• Because of this, five major central banks are meeting into the most fragmented economic backdrop since the early…

The Fed meets this week for Kevin Warsh’s first decision as chair, and with a hold mostly priced in, focus shifts to what he may signal on future balance sheet policy. Chairman Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, which currently sits around $6.7 trillion, to significantly smaller levels over time. He believes the Fed should hold fewer assets so it plays a less interventionist role in markets. Warsh…

JPAM: This week's chart highlights that despite a record oil supply shock, prices remain steady near $90 as inventories and rerouting offset lost barrels. The world faces the biggest oil-supply shock on record, yet, barring a brief initial spike, oil prices have stayed contained, averaging around $90/bbl so far this month. This week’s chart shows why. The disruption has removed roughly 20 million barrels per day…

The GIC Weekly: Chart of the week

The GIC Weekly: Chart of the week

Apollo: Commodity prices are moving higher across the board, but for different reasons in each segment. Middle East supply disruptions are lifting energy and fertilizer prices. The data center buildout, alongside EVs and electrification, is driving demand for base metals like copper and aluminum. Higher inflation is fueling safe-haven demand for precious metals. For more, see chart book available…

The effective tariff rate should remain unchanged

BofA: We estimate the latest tariffs proposed by the US administration represent almost 2pp for the US effective tariff rate. This is nearly identical to our initial estimate of the impact of 10% Section 122 tariffs. As a result, the US effective tariff rate should remain nearly unchanged after Section 122 tariffs expire in July. The newly proposed duties…

June 10, 2026: Humanoid robots are approaching an inflection point, and their path from prototypes to real-world deployment is accelerating. How the supply chain matures will shape the pace and economics of humanoid deployment over the next decade. What makes the supply chain picture distinctive is the mismatch between where value concentrates and where the supplier ecosystem is ready for high-volume production,…

Apollo: With the three largest passive S&P 500 funds now holding more than $2.6 trillion combined, and Vanguard's VOO alone crossing $1 trillion this month, prices are increasingly set by mechanical flows rather than by anyone judging what companies are actually worth. See chart.

Coatue: Is the baton passing? AI Labs are projected to generate the most net new ARR in Q2.

Fidelity: The advance/decline line takes the cumulative total of the number of stocks advancing less the number of stocks declining over some period of time. If stocks or an index are rising but the A/D line is falling, fewer stocks are contributing to the rally. That could signal a potential reversal of the uptrend. While stocks pushed to new record highs earlier this month, the S&P 500's advance/decline line…

China’s industrial profits rose to 24.7% YoY in April from 15.8% in March. That substantial gain masks highly uneven profitability: while upstream sectors, especially oil and gas, have benefitted from the oil price shock, total profit growth outside of the commodity complex slowed. Moreover, profits are declining in YoY terms for firms outside of the commodities and electronics industries. And after removing price…

Nomura IWM: Short-dated sovereign yields have repriced materially higher across the G3 (US, Eurozone, UK) this week, reflecting a convergence of resilient labour markets (at least in the US) and sticky inflation that is forcing central banks back into tightening territory. In the US, the 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to near 4.16% - its highest since February 2025 – after May’s nonfarm payrolls print of 172,000…

HaverAnalytics: Global financial markets have been unsettled in recent days. Last week’s stronger-than-expected US employment report wrong-footed investors positioned for a more accommodative Federal Reserve, triggering a sharp reassessment of rate expectations and a notable sell-off in technology stocks — a sector that had been among the primary beneficiaries of the prevailing low-rate narrative. Persistent…

RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: OPEC's share of ​global oil production has plummeted since the start of the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The producer group will likely find it hard to build back its strength.

US Treasury securities at 2-year constant maturity and CIO forecast After reaching new all-time highs, the S&P 500 saw a sharp pullback as stronger-than-expected US jobs data reignited concerns about potential Fed rate hikes. Technology stocks led the decline, with renewed doubts about AI valuations following news that Meta may seek significant new funding for its AI initiatives and disappointing AI revenue…

• The energy crisis is increasing the need for green transition investment. On 3 June, the European Commission announced additional fiscal flexibility for energy security investments.
• This conviction is not without historical precedent: for instance, the 1973 oil crisis led France to expand its nuclear energy program.
• Overall, a well-planned green transition may help build economic resilience and improve energy…