JPAM: Oil has stayed calm, but through costly means | June 15, 2026 | Thought of the Week

JPAM: This week's chart highlights that despite a record oil supply shock, prices remain steady near $90 as inventories and rerouting offset lost barrels.

The world faces the biggest oil-supply shock on record, yet, barring a brief initial spike, oil prices have stayed contained, averaging around $90/bbl so far this month.

This week’s chart shows why. The disruption has removed roughly 20 million barrels per day (mbd) of Middle East crude and product supply, but the market has offset those losses through four channels. First, workaround barrels: Gulf producers have rerouted flows through pipelines, while clandestine flows through the Strait have picked up. Together, these have bridged around a third of the gap. Second, demand destruction, led by the Middle East and Southeast Asia, has saved barrels but weighed on activity...more