Rate Hikes, Recessions, & the Biggest Risk | Signal or Noise Ep 78 | Charlie Bilello | Peter Mallouk | 10 Sept 2026 | Creative Planning
1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)
- Federal Reserve Hawkish Shift: Market expectations are pricing in a 60% probability of a rate hike in September, rising to 87% by December, driven by persistent inflationary pressures [00:01:25].
- Cumulative Inflation vs. Annual Metrics: While annual CPI sits near 3.4%, cumulative price increases reach 29% over the last 6 years and 39% over 10 years, severely eroding consumer purchasing power [00:04:34].
References
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