The Private Credit Unwind Is Coming – Tony Yoseloff | The Master Investor Podcast

"capital chases returns and markets become efficient over time and just a tremendous amount of capital flow into this asset class specifically direct corporate lending and you know that's just starting to catch up" - Tony Yoseloff [00:16:52]

"true default rates in these markets are already five or 6% and have been the last couple of years... it's just because companies themselves have had a really hard time adjusting to a higher interest rate environment" - Tony Yoseloff [00:14:17]

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"capital chases returns and markets become efficient over time and just a tremendous amount of capital flow into this asset class specifically direct corporate lending and you know that's just starting to catch up" - Tony Yoseloff [00:16:52]

"true default rates in these markets are already five or 6% and have been the last couple of years... it's just because companies themselves have had a really hard time adjusting to a higher interest rate environment" - Tony Yoseloff [00:14:17]

Data Point	Value	Context	Timestamp
Davidson Kempner AUM	$40 billion	Total assets under management by the firm.	[00:02:08]
Fed Rate Hike Velocity	550 bps	The historic increase in short-term rates over a tight 16-month window.	[00:07:50]
True Corporate Default Rates	5-6%	Current default rate in direct lending, including hidden liability management exercises.	[00:14:17]
First-Lien Debt Recovery Rate	36 cents	The average return on the dollar for defaulted first-lien debt last year.	[00:15:24]

The Private Credit Unwind Is Coming – Tony Yoseloff | The Master Investor Podcast

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The Private Credit Unwind Is Coming – Tony Yoseloff | The Master Investor Podcast

References

More nuggets

OpenAI’s Compute Chief: We Can’t Build Fast Enough | Sachin Katti | 16 Jul 2026 | Deploying AI

Dr. Robert Wachter | A Giant Leap: How AI Is Transforming Healthcare... | 14 Jul 2026 | Talks at Google

Building ChimeCore: How Chime developed its own banking infrastructure | 16 Jul 2026 | What the FinTech?

Speakers & Credentials

1. Executive Summary

2. Chronological Table of Contents

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

Historical Macro Analogues & Rate Shocks [00:05:10]

The Private Credit Unwind & Software Vulnerabilities [00:12:39]

Market Dispersion and Geographic Diversification [00:23:34]

Event-Driven Strategies & Downside Protection [00:32:44]

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

6. Memorable Anecdotes

7. References & Recommendations

8. Actionable Next Steps

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