El Niño, geopolitics and agricultural commodities | The Commodity Exchange | 30 Jul 2026 | WisdomTree in Europe

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Top Key Takeaways:

  • Agricultural commodities surged +11% YTD in 2026, with an 8% acceleration in July alone due to dual, mutually reinforcing supply-side shocks on input (fertilizer) and output (weather) channels [00:01:23].
  • The closure/disruption of the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens global fertilizer trade, as 30% of seaborne urea, 25% of ammonia, and 44% of sulfur pass through the chokepoint [00:01:44], [].