The Biggest Myths in Markets | Signal or Noise Ep 80 | 22 Oct 2026 | Charlie Bilello | Peter Mallouk

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• All-Time Highs are Bullish Signals, Not Sell Triggers: [00:00:30] Since 1957, the S&P 500 has notched 1,334 all-time highs. Historically, forward 1-, 3-, and 5-year expected equity returns are higher following an all-time high than during non-all-time high periods.
• Stock Market Correlation to GDP is Minimal: [00:03:04] Real GDP growth accounts for only ~5% ($R^2 \approx 0.05$, correlation ~20%) of annual S&P 500 return variance, as equity markets price future corporate earnings expectations rather than trailing economic output.