Why bond yields are rising | 1 Sept 2026 | Markets Explained | J.P. Morgan Asset Management EMEA

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Top Key Takeaways:

  • Fed Hawkish Pivot & Rate Hike Probability: Following Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve signaled a strict commitment to the 2% PCE target and labeled financial conditions as non-restrictive, shifting the baseline to require soft data to prevent a September rate hike [03:15].
  • Persistently Stubborn Energy Risk: Despite escalating Middle East military conflict, oil prices have remained relatively contained due to re-routing and inventory usage; however, long-dated oil futures are creeping higher as markets price in a structural, longer-lasting supply deficit into 2027 [].