Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed | 21 Jul 2026 | Podcast for Key Thought Leadership | PIMCO Pod

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Top Key Takeaways:

  • Transition to Warsh Fed Regime: The arrival of incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh marks a paradigm shift away from explicit forward guidance, heavy balance sheet intervention, and market volatility suppression, creating elevated two-way risk and market dispersion [00:00:39].
  • Asymmetric Fixed Income Convexity: With starting 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at ~4.5%, bonds offer significant downside income cushion alongside potential ~20% total returns if yields drop to 2.0% during a growth scare [].