The New Macro Playbook | Global Conference 2026

Nuggets

The New Macro Playbook | Global Conference 2026 | 23 Jun 2026 · Nuggets

The Transition to Modern Mercantilism [00:03:04 - 00:11:32]
- The Core Argument: The foundational macro paradigm of the last 40 years—organizing global supply chains purely for maximum cost efficiency—is dead. It has been replaced by "modern mercantilism," where sovereign nations treat economic dependencies as weaponized vulnerabilities.
- Mechanics & Nuance: When nations realize that critical inputs (energy, rare earths, pharmaceuticals) can be cut off during conflicts, they choose to build overlapping, redundant domestic capacities. By definition, duplicating supply infrastructure inside national borders is economically inefficient and structurally inflationary, acting as a permanent supply shock rather than a cyclical demand problem.
- Anecdotes & Evidence: Karen points out that China long recognized this reality and insulated its economy ahead of recent trade disputes and Middle Eastern conflicts [00:04:48]. André adds that the reorganization means production shifts to geopolitically stable regions (e.g., Vietnam or Brazil) based on security guarantees rather than baseline labor costs [00:10:44].
The AI Hyper-Capex Cycle and Resource Constraints [00:26:39 - 00:33:01]
- The Core Argument: Current US macroeconomic outperformance is heavily distorted by the largest physical capital expenditure boom in modern history, masking underlying soft spots in traditional consumer-facing sectors.
- Mechanics & Nuance: Unlike the fiber-optic internet boom of the late 1990s, which built "dark fiber" capacity that sat idle waiting for demand, the AI capex cycle features zero idle hardware. Every advanced GPU and memory chip manufactured in Taiwan and Korea is immediately deployed. However, this capex phase is highly capital and power-intensive but employment-light, meaning it creates massive corporate profits without generating broad-based wage growth or consumer employment.
- Anecdotes & Evidence: The speakers note that institutional portfolios are completely unprepared for the physical bottlenecks of this trend: data centers are running directly into regional grid power shortages, and basic electronic component manufacturing faces sudden chokepoints, such as recent Middle Eastern logistics disruptions halting shipments of helium required for semiconductor fabrication [00:32:06].
Sovereign Deficits and Impending Financial Repression [00:36:01 - 00:41:58]
- The Core Argument: Major western liberal democracies are running persistent, wartime-level fiscal deficits during peacetime, driving sovereign balance sheets toward structural limits that threaten local currency values and institutional stability.
- Mechanics & Nuance: Emergency fiscal spending during the 2020 pandemic established a permanently elevated baseline for government outlays. Because democratic political systems find fiscal austerity unpalatable, states are attempting to "grow their way out" of debt. As central banks maintain elevated interest rates to counter structural inflation, interest expenses crowd out private investment and force a reliance on domestic capital retention.
- Anecdotes & Evidence: André details the early structural cracks appearing in European sovereign debt markets, highlighting that certain high-grade corporate bonds in France are now trading at lower yields than French sovereign bonds due to persistent credit downgrades [00:37:02].
Tokenization, Intraday Interest, and Banking System Vulnerability [00:44:10 - 00:51:10]
- The Core Argument: Regulatory shifts following major digital asset legislation are forcing institutional banks to adopt tokenized ledgers, which will permanently dismantle traditional commercial banking profit models based on free checking accounts.
- Mechanics & Nuance: Commercial bank profitability relies on capturing net interest margins from zero-interest demand deposits left idle by retail and corporate clients. Institutional tokenization allows money market funds to be instantly exchangeable for goods and services at microsecond intervals. When capital can earn yield safely on-chain up to the second it is spent, idle bank deposits disappear. To offset the loss of free capital, banks must structurally increase the cost of consumer and corporate credit.
- Anecdotes & Evidence: Jeffrey highlights that institutional asset managers are leading this migration, pointing to BlackRock's recently launched tokenized money fund and Franklin Templeton's operational on-chain fund, which has run for over three years [00:46:25].

The New Macro Playbook | Global Conference 2026 | 23 Jun 2026

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

References

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The New Macro Playbook | Global Conference 2026 | 23 Jun 2026

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

References

More nuggets

BofA: From sports to pop culture: Prediction markets $1 trillion bet | 14 Jul 2026

The Bridge Ep. 13: Good Credit Holds. Bad Credit Breaks | iCapital

Risk, Resilience, and Relationships Ft. Alona Gornick (MD & Senior Investment Strategist, Churchill Asset Management) |16 Jul 2026 | S&P Global Market Intelligence

2. Speaker Profiles & Context

3. Thematic Deep Dives

The Transition to Modern Mercantilism [00:03:04 - 00:11:32]

The AI Hyper-Capex Cycle and Resource Constraints [00:26:39 - 00:33:01]

Sovereign Deficits and Impending Financial Repression [00:36:01 - 00:41:58]

Tokenization, Intraday Interest, and Banking System Vulnerability [00:44:10 - 00:51:10]

4. Forward Looking Indicators & Risks

5. Data & Macro Matrix

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