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"The dollar is our currency and your problem." - John Connally (quoted by Gomart) [00:49:15]
"Power is becoming the capacity to overthrow your problems on others." - Ivan Krastev [00:39:04]
"For Lenin the objective of politics is to destroy the enemy." - Thomas Gomart [00:15:31]
"Maybe it's time to take religion seriously." - Père de Roux (quoted by Gomart) [00:59:09]
"Be careful Europeans because you will be attacked on freedom of speech by this administration... which does want to dismantle DCA and DMA." - Timothy Snyder (quoted by Gomart) [00:12:06]
Speakers & Credentials
Thomas Gomart: Director of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI). An elite strategic analyst and historian, he served as the only civilian on the committee for the 2017 French Strategic Review and is the author of five books on the shifting global order [00:03:47].
Ivan Krastev: Chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies, Sofia, and Permanent Fellow at the IWM Vienna. A preeminent political scientist specializing in the disintegration of the liberal order and global geopolitical shifts [00:00:17].
1. Executive Summary
The global balance of power has transitioned from a post-Cold War era of peace to a new era defined by war, trade weaponization, and ideological "desire."
Thomas Gomart identifies three fundamental trends: environmental deterioration, the propagation of technology, and the return of war as a primary international reality [00:06:14].
Interdependence is no longer a stabilizing force but a mechanism of control, where every connection between states is fundamentally asymmetrical [00:08:01].
The "Who Controls Whom" framework suggests that modern victory is not about total conquest but about managing and weaponizing dependencies [00:16:13].
A "Transatlantic Schism" is emerging, particularly regarding Catholicism and the moral authority used by Silicon Valley elites to justify technological unlimitation [00:13:21].
Russia's military inefficiency in Ukraine contrasts with its diplomatic efficiency in the "transactional south," while Israel demonstrates military efficiency but faces growing international isolation [00:21:01].
Europe is entering a "provincial" phase, losing its status as a global model and being forced to confront the Russian security issue with decreasing American support [00:36:30].
2. Chronological Table of Contents
Introduction and French Strategic Context [00:00:07]
The Global Analytical Framework: Environment, Tech, and War [00:06:14]
Change of Era: The Munich Experience of February 2025 [00:09:47]
The Duel of Liberalism vs. Leninism (Constant vs. Lenin) [00:13:34]
Part 1: The Duels of War (Putin/Zelensky & Netanyahu/Khamenei) [00:17:22]
Part 2: The Duels of Trade (Trump/von der Leyen & Xi/Modi) [00:26:03]
Part 3: The Duels of Desire (IPCC/Fox News & Vatican/Silicon Valley) [00:30:18]
The New Nuclear Age and Strategic Deterrence [00:51:40]
Q&A: Global Social Science and Africa's Growth [01:00:14]
3. Detailed Thematic Summary
Environmental Deterioration and the Myth of Tech Solutionism
Thomas Gomart establishes a foundational framework based on three overlapping trends. The first is the acceleration of environmental deterioration, specifically global warming and biodiversity loss [00:06:22]. The second is the propagation of technologies, though Gomart rejects "solutionism," the belief that tech is the inherent answer to the climate crisis [00:06:33]. The third trend is the return of war. Gomart warns that the European era of guaranteed peace is over [00:07:30]. He emphasizes that strategy requires understanding "alterity"—the reality that the world does not necessarily want to adopt European values [00:08:49].
Asymmetrical Interdependence: The Logic of Control
Modern power is defined by the degree of control one state exerts over another through dependencies [00:16:13]. This is illustrated through the historical duel between Benjamin Constant (political liberalism/prevention of tyranny [00:14:04]) and Vladimir Lenin (party discipline/destruction of the enemy [00:14:47]). Gomart argues that autocracies have adopted a Leninist "Who is winning?" mentality to weaponize globalization. He also highlights the missing maritime perspective in European strategy, noting his own experience living on a naval frigate for months in the Indo-Pacific to understand this blind spot [00:03:00].
The Geopolitics of War and Military Inefficiency
The conflict between Putin and Zelensky represents an attrition war that is now the center of gravity for European security [00:19:37]. While Ukraine's resistance was a strategic surprise [00:20:50], Russia has displayed "military inefficiency" on the ground while maintaining "diplomatic efficiency" by engaging the transactional south [00:21:10]. In the Middle East, the Red Sea blockade threatens the global concept of freedom of navigation [00:25:09]. Israel’s military efficiency—killing 40 key commanders in the first three hours [00:40:11]—contrasts with its growing diplomatic isolation [00:40:57].
Trade as a Weapon and the China-India Pivot
The trade duel between Trump and von der Leyen resulted in an intellectual victory for the US, as Europeans accepted the American reading of global trade during the Turnberry agreement in Scotland [00:26:11]. This accepted submission was intended to keep the US engaged in Ukraine [00:26:52]. Meanwhile, the Xi/Modi duel highlights a massive shift: in 1985, China and India represented 5% of global GDP; today, it is 22% [00:28:11]. While China’s economy is currently 5x larger than India’s, India’s demographic dividend suggests a potential shift by 2030 [00:28:49].
Desire, Moral Authority, and the New Nuclear Age
A profound duel exists between the Vatican and Silicon Valley. Tech oligarchs like Peter Thiel are using a Catholic "thesaurus" to sacralize their pursuit of technological unlimitation [01:13:10]. This occurs within a cognitive sphere where AI-driven fake news is more numerous than truth [00:32:02]. Simultaneously, we have entered a third nuclear age with 9 nuclear states [00:52:09], where Russia openly discusses nuking European capitals on daily TV [00:53:47].
Who Controls Whom (Asymmetrical Interdependence): Power is the ability to leverage a neighbor's dependence. It requires identifying the "unsayable" parts of an opponent's strategy [00:16:13].
Problem Overthrowing: A state "overthrows" strategic burdens onto others (e.g., the US forcing China/Europe to handle shipping blockade consequences while the US endures only fuel price jumps) [00:39:04].
Anti-Solutionism: The rejection of the belief that technology can inherently fix environmental collapse without human limits [00:06:42].
Cognitive Sphere: A new environment where AI-generated fake news outnumbers truth, fundamentally changing political decision-making and public perception [00:32:02].
Vibe-Based Diplomacy: A return to 19th-century-style negotiations led by wealthy private individuals and family-connected "middle-men" [00:46:03].
6. Anecdotes
The Munich Security Conference 2025 vs. Sandoni: Gomart moved from the rigid security elites in Munich to the vibrant, diverse crowd in Saint-Denis to highlight the disconnect between geopolitical rhetoric and social reality [00:09:47].
The Antichrist Claim: Peter Thiel reportedly claims the "Antichrist" refers to those who want to regulate technology [00:45:03].
Netanyahu/Khamenei Injuries: Their personal physical injuries are cited as symbols of their deep, non-negotiable national missions [00:22:22].
The 150-Year Lifespan: Putin telling Xi Jinping about immortality through tech illustrates the hubris of modern autocrats [00:37:27].
7. References & Recommendations
Books & Authors
Who Controls Whom? – Thomas Gomart's latest work on historical acceleration [00:05:56].
What is to be Done? – Nikolai Chernyshevsky (influence on Lenin and Xi) [00:15:00].
Benjamin Constant – Defining liberalism against Napoleonic tyranny [00:13:55].
Raymond Aron – Reference for the French school of strategic thinking [00:03:21].
People
JD Vance: Representing a new US posture centered on migration over European security [00:11:10].
Peter Thiel: The oracle of Silicon Valley using Girardian philosophy [00:33:37].
Mark Carney: Mentioned regarding the "rise of the middle man" in global negotiations [00:45:56].
Jean-Marie Guéhenno: Referenced for the convergence of tech-control in Silicon Valley and the CCP [00:57:24].
The "Transactional South": A term for countries that refuse to sanction Russia despite western pressure [00:21:10].
The Third Nuclear Age: The shift to nine nuclear states and the end of the disarmament era [00:52:09].
8. The Bottomline (by AI)
The global order has shifted from a system of rules to a psychological game of asymmetrical control where traditional "victory" is secondary to managing weaponized interdependencies. Europe must urgently abandon its provincial self-focus and handle its own security, as US interests decouple from the continent. Success now depends on navigating the tension between technological hubris and the moral authority required to impose necessary limits. Watch for the emerging "Transatlantic Schism," where religious frameworks become the primary battlefield for justifying the influence of tech oligarchs and the return of personalized, high-stakes diplomacy.
Jul 13, 2026
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