The US Al investment boom in (recent) historical perspective

Putting the AI Boom in Perspective

Current AI investment is smaller than history suggests, but carries significant risks:

• Scale: At ~1% of GDP, AI investment is 2x smaller than the 90s Dot-com boom and 5x smaller than historical mining surges.
• The "Cliff": The end of investment booms typically slows GDP growth by >1pp on average.
• Growth Myth: Even tech-driven booms rarely translate into sustained, long-term GDP increases.
• Main Risk: High equity exposure and hidden leverage could lead to a significant market correction if the boom stalls.

🔗BIS | Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt