"The world is exiting a peak period of like a unipolar power, very like a hyper power in the world..." - Lyn Alden [00:05:01]
"...just because you get back up to $150 oil, which historically has been awful... I do think that the economy is resilient enough to handle those types of similar nominal numbers of the past." - Lyn Alden [00:13:13]
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"You know, in a developing country, the two things policymakers have to try to not mess up are food inflation and energy inflation or shortages. I mean, that's how you get revolutions." - Lyn Alden [00:32:38]
"There's no one you could talk to right now who can give you, you know, a complete answer on anything. We're all fumbling our way through it." - Michael Every [00:47:51]
"...if energy goes up, everything goes up, but it's going to be the shock of, guess what, there isn't any available regardless of the price, so you don't record an increase in inflation, there just isn't any diesel." - Michael Every [00:54:51]
"I'm actually a deep-seated optimist, but I'm an optimist wrapped in a pessimist." - Michael Every [01:09:20]
Speakers & Credentials
Eric Townsend: Host of MacroVoices, financial commentator.
Patrick Ceresna: Co-host of MacroVoices, technical analyst.
Lyn Alden: Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, macroeconomic analyst, and author of Broken Money and the sci-fi novel The Stogard Incident.
Michael Every: Global Strategist for Economics and Markets at RaboResearch (Rabobank), focusing on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and global finance.
1. Executive Summary
The global macro landscape is actively transitioning away from a unipolar, U.S.-dominated hyper-power era toward a multipolar system characterized by localized power struggles, as currently witnessed in the Middle East.
The resilience of the U.S. economy, driven by fiscal deficit spending and AI capex, suggests it could withstand $150/barrel oil, although prices breaching $200/barrel would trigger severe, widespread structural breakdowns.
The inflationary pulse from an energy shock is highly disruptive, but permanent aggregate inflation only crystallizes if accompanied by corresponding broad money supply growth.
Emerging markets face an acute, disproportionate vulnerability to the cascading effects of energy scarcity and second-wave food inflation, as wealthier nations relentlessly outbid them for limited resources.
Geopolitical analysis of the Middle East is heavily obscured by extreme "fog of war" and deliberate disinformation campaigns, making headline-driven market trading incredibly hazardous.
An extended closure or limitation of the Strait of Hormuz will not just cause price inflation but absolute physical shortages of critical distillates like diesel and jet fuel, physically halting global supply chains.
Although the U.S. private credit sector is experiencing significant stress and defaults (partially spurred by rapid growth and AI-driven software optimization), the systemic contagion risk to the broader U.S. banking system is low, as bank exposure remains a manageable 7-8% of total assets.
2. Chronological Table of Contents
[00:04:16] - Lyn Alden on the Shift to a Multipolar World
[00:08:40] - The Dislocation of Precious Metals and Bitcoin
The global geopolitical structure is shifting away from the historically unusual U.S. hyper-power period (peaking in the late 1990s) back toward a traditional multipolar setup [00:06:14].
Applying Ray Dalio's empire lifecycle framework, U.S. educational quality peaked early, while its global reserve currency dominance—buoyed by immense network effects—will likely be the final pillar of influence to decline [00:06:53].
The ongoing Middle Eastern conflict exemplifies empires struggling to gracefully right-size their power projection from a position of strength, resulting in violent friction [00:08:07].
Precious Metals, Bitcoin, and Market Dislocation [00:08:40]
Contrary to traditional safe-haven behavior, gold and silver sold off heavily during the initial geopolitical shock, primarily because they had already experienced a parabolic, sentiment-driven bubble in the year prior [00:09:06].
Sovereign entities and institutional players frequently use gold as a primary liquidity source, selling it out of necessity rather than desire during acute crises [00:10:38].
Bitcoin showed surprising resilience due to previously washing out weak hands during a multi-month deleveraging phase, making it highly attractive as a highly portable, borderless asset for capital flight [00:11:20].
The Macroeconomic Threshold for Oil Shocks [00:12:12]
The U.S. currently operates as a "K-Shaped" two-speed economy. Older, wealthier citizens linked to massive fiscal deficit spending (healthcare, defense, social security) or AI capex are thriving, while lower-income demographics are stalling under housing and insurance costs [00:14:30].
Because the broader money supply has expanded immensely, a nominal $150/barrel oil price will cause significant friction but will not collapse the global economy; it simply requires adjustment [00:17:28].
Conversely, oil analysts predict a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could push crude to $200+/barrel, an inflation-adjusted all-time high that would genuinely cripple global economic function [00:13:54].
The massive, persistent inflation post-2020 was directly caused by the hyper-stimulus of broad money supply growth, not just supply chain bottlenecks [00:18:37].
Supply-driven price shocks (like the 2022 energy spike or the current Middle East crisis) act as temporary taxes on the consumer; unless central banks monetize the pain via direct stimulus, the broad inflation metrics will eventually baseline once supply chains mend [00:19:47].
Regarding the imminent handover to Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, the Federal Reserve operates via a 12-member FOMC consensus, meaning drastic single-handed dovish pivots are highly improbable [00:23:05].
Warsh’s hands will be entirely tied by war-induced inflationary signals, virtually neutralizing any attempts to cut interest rates without first witnessing severe unemployment damage [00:26:19].
The Strait of Hormuz is a massive artery for raw fertilizer inputs and industrial gases (like helium); a prolonged closure guarantees a severe secondary wave of global food inflation spanning multiple crop cycles [00:31:22].
Emerging markets lacking energy independence face catastrophic squeezes. Egypt has already seen its natural gas import bill triple from $500 million to $1.5 billion monthly, forcing rolling business curfews and a rapid currency devaluation from 47 to 52 EGP per USD [00:34:54].
In developing nations, mismanaging energy shortages and food inflation is a direct historical catalyst for political revolutions [00:32:38].
The private credit sector is facing severe internal turmoil, heavily driven by reckless, loose lending standards during rapid capital inflows, and exacerbated by the disruptive threat of AI to software business models [00:38:44].
Despite search trends matching the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the systemic banking risk is negligible. U.S. banks have lent roughly $1.9 trillion to Non-Deposit Financial Institutions (NDFIs), which represents only 7-8% of the $25 trillion in total U.S. bank assets [00:40:28].
Massive losses will brutally punish frontline private equity and credit investors, but bank capital buffers can easily absorb the downstream defaults without triggering broad economic contagion [00:41:00].
PART II: MICHAEL EVERY - GEOPOLITICS & THE FOG OF WAR
Headlines from the Middle East are highly manipulative and weaponized. Michael Every points out that the U.S. and Israel frequently deploy a "fake discord" tactic (like during 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer) to lull algorithms and adversaries before executing highly coordinated strikes [00:51:04].
Market participants must distinguish signal from noise; contradictory statements issued by allied nations within minutes of each other are often deliberate strategies rather than genuine policy breakdowns [00:50:25].
Strait of Hormuz Transit Reality vs. Rhetoric [00:52:03]
Despite Iranian claims that the Strait is open for a $2 million toll, actual transit data contradicts the rhetoric: only 6 ships are passing per day compared to the standard 138 ships [00:52:34].
Traders cannot rely solely on official state announcements regarding transit safety; physical tracking of vessel numbers is the only reliable metric of the strait's operational status [00:53:08].
Real-World Consequences of Energy Shortages [00:53:23]
The absolute worst-case scenario isn't just high prices, but absolute physical scarcity. A lack of bunker and diesel fuel will cause maritime trade to halt entirely [00:54:51].
Physical shortages can lead to bizarre localized deflationary anomalies. For instance, Thai farmers unable to secure diesel were forced to dump strawberry cargo at fire-sale prices by the roadside [00:55:37].
A persistent shortage leads to an exponential, rather than linear, breakdown of the economy as secondary and tertiary supply chains collapse globally [00:56:10].
The Long Road to Recovery Post-Conflict [01:00:15]
Any resolution to the conflict will not immediately reset global markets. Given massive supply infrastructure destruction—such as Qatar losing an estimated 17% of LNG capacity for up to 3-5 years—repairing the energy architecture will take months to years [01:01:46].
Prematurely exiting the conflict without a decisive victory would be an existential, 1956 Suez-style geopolitical disaster for the U.S., severely damaging its global power projection capabilities [01:00:32].
Iran has deep incentives to continue escalating to force Western powers out, which would allow them to bully the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) into recognizing Iranian dominance over Middle Eastern energy [01:01:14].
Stablecoin Statecraft & New Financial Architecture [01:10:50]
Post-conflict, the geopolitical financial plumbing will permanently change, strongly accelerating the rollout of U.S.-backed stablecoins to secure future energy-trading alliances [01:11:14].
Simultaneously, China's centralized digital renminbi will be pushed heavily into the region as competing powers attempt to establish monetary dominance over the newly reconstructed energy landscape [01:11:48].
The integration of digital currencies into statecraft will ensure that the geofinancial volatility experienced today is just the precursor to major structural shifts throughout the rest of the year [01:12:00].
The Reference Vault
4. Data & Figures
Data Point
Value
Context
Timestamp
Manageable Oil Price Peak
$150/barrel
The threshold at which the U.S. economy can function via structural adjustments.
The Multipolar Geopolitical Shift: The framework that unipolar empires inevitably regress to the historical norm of competing regional poles. Used by Lyn Alden to contextualize the U.S. struggle to manage multi-front global conflicts from a position of declining total leverage [00:06:14].
The "K-Shaped" / Two-Speed Economy: An economic model where different demographic or sectoral groups experience wildly divergent realities. Applied to the U.S. economy to explain how massive fiscal deficits shield older, wealthier Americans from high energy costs while punishing younger workers and prospective homebuyers [00:14:30].
Money Supply vs. Supply Chain Inflation: A mental model delineating true, permanent inflation (driven by central bank money supply expansion) from transitory price shocks (driven by logistical bottlenecks or war). Used to forecast that the oil shock will only cause baseline inflation if governments print money to subsidize the energy costs [00:18:37].
The "Middle Eastern Bazaar" Negotiation Strategy: A behavioral model highlighting that initial geopolitical postures are intentionally extreme and deceptive. Used by Michael Every to warn investors against trading on raw headlines, as opening bids are almost always bluffs designed to anchor expectations [00:50:46].
Stablecoin Statecraft: The geopolitical strategy of utilizing blockchain-based digital currencies as weapons of financial architecture. Applied to predict that the eventual resolution of the Middle Eastern conflict will heavily involve deploying U.S. and Chinese stablecoins to lock in new energy alliances [01:10:50].
6. Anecdotes
Egypt’s Energy Curfew: To illustrate the acute pain of energy shocks on emerging markets, Lyn Alden describes Egypt’s situation where a tripling natural gas bill immediately forced local governments to mandate 9:00 PM curfews for cafes and businesses to physically conserve electricity via rolling blackouts [00:16:24].
Alden’s Rule for Books: Eric Townsend recalls Lyn Alden’s past advice—"Do not write a book unless you can't help yourself"—as the perfect segue to discuss her new foray into science fiction writing, underscoring the necessity of genuine passion for monumental creative tasks [00:44:02].
Operation Midnight Hammer (2025): Every references a recent historical event where the U.S. and Israel intentionally projected total diplomatic discord to fool global media and trading algorithms, only to execute a flawlessly coordinated military strike once the adversary dropped its guard [00:51:04].
The Thai Strawberry Truck: Highlighting the bizarre, localized deflationary impacts of absolute physical scarcity, Michael Every recounts a Thai farmer who, unable to secure scarce diesel fuel for his truck on the highway to Bangkok, was forced to pull over and dump his strawberry cargo at total fire-sale prices to passing motorists [00:55:37].
The 1956 Suez Crisis: Michael Every leverages this historical event as an anecdote/parallel to explain that if the U.S. retreats from the current Strait of Hormuz conflict without achieving its objectives, it would suffer a catastrophic, systemic loss of global power projection capability similar to Britain's historical decline [01:00:32].
7. References & Recommendations
Ray Dalio: Cited by Lyn Alden regarding his extensive research on the lifecycle mapping of historical empires and leading indicator metrics.
Jerome Powell: Current Federal Reserve Chair referenced in discussions around monetary policy and political independence.
Kevin Warsh: Upcoming Federal Reserve Chair explicitly analyzed for his potential monetary policy divergence from Jerome Powell.
Charles Payne / Fox Business: Mentioned by Alden regarding a recent television segment ranking global financial crises, where she placed energy risks drastically above private credit contagion.
Ursula von der Leyen & Xi Jinping: Referenced hypothetically by Eric Townsend to illustrate a scenario where Europe and China bypass the U.S. and Israel to deal directly with Iran.
"Broken Money" (Book): Lyn Alden's non-fiction text examining the intersection of money, history, and technology.
"The Stogard Incident" (Book): A new science fiction thriller authored by Lyn Alden projecting current technological and systemic trends into the future.
Jul 13, 2026
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Bank Exposure to NDFIs
$1.9 Trillion
The total amount U.S. banks have lent to Non-Deposit Financial Institutions.