Productivity Gains from New Tech Can Take Time
~100 years between Faraday's electric motor and a leap forward in productivity
a16z: It took ~100 years from when Faraday and Henry first began talking about electric currents to unleash the industrial productivity wave in the first half of the 20th Century.
Cycle times have sped up since the 1820s, for sure, but there’s still an awful lot of moving parts involved in a platform shift, like this one.
What’s that thing that Roy Amara liked to say? “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”
References
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